Horse Racing Tips: Paddy’s Ultimate Cheat Sheet for Epsom Derby day

I wanted to take on Running Lion and after a deep dive I landed on Breege for John and Sean Quinn. She ran really well in the Sandringham behind Coppice last year and she ran well on her seasonal reappearance at Goodwood and can improve for the run.

Chic Colombine ran a little disappointingly in the French 1,000 Guineas but it shows how highly connections regard her. The drop in class to Group 3 company can see her get competitive now at a sporting price.

Astral Beau ran a huge race last season in arguably a better contest. The softer conditions will play to her strengths.

I’m stunned RUNNING LION is not shorter in the betting and expect her to take all the beating under Oisin Murphy for John & Thady Gosden. I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t win.

RUNNING LION looked better than ever when runner-up in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her comeback last month and she should take plenty of beating back down in class.

Roger Varian’s Embesto will wear a hood as he can race a bit keenly. He’s drawn just inside Regal Reality so I’ll take my chances with him.

Regal Reality won this contest last year. His recent run at Chester should see him fighting fit and he’s versatile regarding ground conditions.

Embesto looked like I did after a Christmas dinner with all the trimmings for his return at Newmarket! He’s going to take a significant step forward and the team have put the hood on to get him to settle early on for his rider, James Doyle.

EPICTETUS is an each-way selection here for John & Thady Gosden and Kieran Shoemark. The former French Derby fifth will enjoy running at a strong gallop here which he did not have at Ascot on seasonal debut. I would just forget about that effort.

EMBESTO developed into a smart performer as a 3-y-o, dead-heating for success in a Group 3 at Salisbury, and he can resume his progress after a slow start left him on the back foot at Newmarket on his reappearance. With a hood added, he is taken to get the better of last year’s one-two in the race, with Highland Avenue feared most ahead of Regal Reality.

Mashadi didn’t stay on his last start at Ascot when folding in the last 50 yards. He drops back to 5f now from 6f and looks better than his handicap mark of 84.

Things didn’t quite work out for Due For Luck last time at Chester on seasonal debut when third to Knicks in a three-way photo finish. He’s drawn in stall 19 which should help him now.

DUE FOR LUCK was so unlucky not to get his head in front on his return at Chester and the handicapper has only given him a gentle nudge up the weights with a 2lb rise. He travels strongly at a very fast pace which is an ideal asset at this track.

MASHAADI is piping fit and running well and should have a chance of getting a place at least. My hope remains a maiden and has posted seven second-place finishes. So each-way is the advice!

GRANDLAD confirmed himself a useful sprinter in the making when adding to his tally over this trip at Goodwood 7 days ago, asserting close home having pulled clear with the runner-up. A 3 lb rise for that looks fair and he shades the vote to complete the hat-trick.

Silky Wilkie is an obvious pick at the top of the market. He’s 8lbs lower than when second in this race last year. At a bigger price, One Night Stand ran on well last year in this contest and has a fair draw in stall 10 this time.

Clarendon House looked really good when winning at York last time and ran well in this contest last year. He got a 6lb penalty for that victory but he can justify it now.

SILKY WILKIE produced a fantastic effort in this contest last season when only beaten in a head-bobbing finish. He now reappears fully 8lb below last season’s rating and won’t mind whatever the weather throws at him.

LIVE IN THE MOMENT has been running over 6f of late and he is a winner over that trip – but I think he’s all about speed. He gets a huge chance now to make up for last year when he was strongly fancied in this 5f contest but his stall opened late and the pack had flown.

CLARENDON HOUSE arrives at the top of his game and his strong-travelling style is suited to this speedy track so he is taken to build on last year’s third here.

I’m not forgiving City of Troy’s odds-on defeat in the 2000 Guineas but I will side with another Aidan O’Brien runner in Los Angeles. He has to step forward but can improve from his Leopardstown win on seasonal debut.

If the 2,000 Guineas flop City Of Troy was trained by anyone else it would be a 20/1 shot to redeem himself over this 1m 4f trip but O’Brien did it with Auguste Rodin last year and will need to do it again now. I can’t see it happening to be honest and much prefer his unbeaten stablemate Los Angeles who won at Leopardstown on seasonal debut. He can lead home Ancient Wisdom, Macduff & Ambiente Friendly.

LOS ANGELES brings in the perfect 100 per cent record with three unbeaten runs and still has a massive amount of improvement left in him judged by the way he went through his last win at Leopardstown. He’s peaking at the right time for master trainer Aidan O’Brien.

Such a hard Derby to have a strong opinion on. City of Troy could rip the race apart on juvenile form but his 2,000 Guineas run was a mystery to us all. I’m risking one at huge odds and going to have a few quid each-way on DEIRA MILE. First time cheekpieces are interesting and if he’s dropped in and ridden for a place he might just come home strong.

While LOS ANGELES was no striking winner of the Leopardstown Derby Trial on his fast-ground reappearance he was nicely on top at the line and looks sure to benefit from the step up to 1½m. He won’t be inconvenienced should there be any ease in the going having won a Group 1 on soft last season.