City Of Troy is clear of the Derby field on official ratings but needs to bounce back from his 2000 Guineas disaster in Saturday’s Classic at Epsom.
Ballydoyle master Aidan O’Brien will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s renewal as Auguste Rodin recovered from a dismal showing at Newmarket to claim the Derby spoils from subsequent Group 1 winner King Of Steel.
A typical Derby scorer heads to Epsom off the back of an encouraging trial, however, and the likes of Ambiente Friendly, Ancient Wisdom, Dancing Gemini and Los Angeles all enhanced their credentials in the build up to the stallion-making race.
Derby odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key historical trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Derby trends
COURSE FORM
A lack of action throughout the season at Epsom means it’s hardly surprising that none of the last 10 winners of the Derby had previously raced at Epsom. Andrew Balding’s pair of Bellum Justum and Sayedaty Sadaty have already taken to the track in their careers.
DISTANCE FORM
Previous experience over 1m2f to 1m4f – the Derby trip – is favourable because seven winners had already raced over the distance, with five of those being successful. City Of Troy has never been beyond 1m – and that was a bit of a disaster!
DRAW
A higher draw appears to be preferable because nine winners broke from stall seven or higher – the exception to the rule being Adayar (2021) who was bagged the top prize from stall one.
FLAT FORM
Quite frankly, you must look for a horse that has already won on the level as that is a stat shared by the last 10 winners of the Derby. Amo Racing’s second string, Mr Hampstead, is still a maiden!
Furthermore, nine of those had at least three career runs under their hooves, with the trends buster – Desert Crown (2022) boasting two wins from two starts. Voyage has only been seen on track once!
GROUP FORM
It’s not a deal breaker but a previous success in a Group 1, 2 or 3 contest is a trend achieved by seven winners since 2014.
LAST TIME OUT
Auguste Rodin (2023) was the only winner of the Derby in the last 10 years to have been out of the places in their previous outing. A good sign for stablemate City Of Troy or a worrying omen?
A further stat to note is that Harzand (2016) is the only winner to have not had their previous run in the last 35 days.
ODDS
The Derby is a race that regularly throws up a shock result because only five winners could be found in the top three in Paddy Power’s betting market, while four winners boasted double-digit SPs.
RATING
Eight winners of the race were rated 109 or higher and the average rating of the first past the post in the period we’re assessing (excluding Serpentine, who did not have an official mark in 2020) was 115.
SEASON FORM
All of the runners for this year’s renewal of the Derby apart from Kamboo meet the vital trend of having had at least one run for the season, however, only six of the last 10 winners of the Epsom Classic had already scored in that campaign.
Derby 2024 trends verdict
Despite being drawn in 11 – a stall no horse has won the Derby from – ANCIENT WISDOM hits the key trends and is taken to secure a third Derby triumph for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby. A bit more juice in the ground would boost his chances!
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Saturday’s Racing Tips
- Matt Chapman’s Saturday ITV Racing tips for Epsom
- Rory Delargy’s Epsom tips for Saturday
- Mick Fitzgerald’s horse racing tips for Epsom on Saturday
- Jason Weaver’s ITV Racing tips at Epsom on Saturday
Read More on the Derby
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- Derby tips and runner-by-runner guide to Epsom 4.30 on Saturday
- When is the Derby? Epsom date, start time, runners and betting
- Confirmed Derby runners and riders for Saturday’s big race at Epsom
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