1000 Guineas 2024 trends and stats for Newmarket 3.40 on Sunday

Can the history books point us towards the winner?

1000 Guineas

Hot on the hooves of the 2000 Guineas, the girls get their chance to strut their stuff on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket.

This year’s renewal of the 1000 Guineas appears to be wide open as no clear favourite has emerged from the pack, although Dance Sequence, Fallen Angel and Ylang Ylang have been consistent at the top of the betting in the build up.

A bumper field of 16 runners are set to go to post at 15:40 on Sunday and Paddy’s paying four places each-way.

1000 Guineas odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key historical trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.

1000 Guineas trends

COURSE FORM

Newmarket experience is emerging as a key trend as the last six winners – and eight of the last 10 – all had a previous outing, although only four of those had already been in the winners’ enclosure at HQ.

DISTANCE FORM

A previous try over the mile is vital as every winner had already tested their mettle at the trip.

FLAT FORM

Every winner had at least four previous outings on the level and one victory. Dance Sequence and See The Fire are short on experience having only had three runs each under rules.

GROUP FORM

You want a horse with a Group success on their CV as that is a trait shared by eight winners.

 

LAST TIME OUT

A win last time out is not necessarily important because only four winners achieved the feat, although four more were placed on their previous outing.

ODDS

Just one favourite in the last 10 runnings of the 1000 Guineas justified their position at the head of the betting.

Just four winners in the period could be found in the top three in the market, although nine were available a starting price of 16/1 or shorter.

RATING

Nine winners of the 1000 Guineas since 2014 were rated 106 or higher. The average rating of the winner in that period is 109.5.

SEASON FORM

Whereas the 2000 Guineas trends indicates the winner will be making their first appearance of the season, six winners of the 1000 Guineas in the last 10 years had a prep run, with three of those being successful.

1000 Guineas 2024 trends verdict

Ylang Ylang and PORTA FORTUNA are the only two horses to meet the most-important trends and the poor record of fillies towards the top of the betting makes the latter emerge as the trends pick.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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