It’s the moment we’ve all been waiting for… City Of Troy soaring down the Rowley Mile in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.
Can the Justify colt live up to the hype or will potential dreams of an all-conquering campaign go up in smoke? The answers will be revealed at 15:35 on Saturday but a look into the profile of previous winners might give us a clue as to his chances.
There is also the little matter of some exciting rivals including Blue Point colt Rosallion, who has the world at his hooves after a taking success in last season’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, and Godolphin prospect Notable Speech.
2000 Guineas odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key historical trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
2000 Guineas trends
COURSE FORM
Newmarket experience is emerging as a key trend – achieved by six of the last seven winners, although only three of those had already been in the winners’ enclosure at the track.
DISTANCE FORM
A previous try over the mile is not the be all and end all as only five winners had already tested their mettle at the trip.
FLAT FORM
Every winner had at least three previous outings on the level and two victories. Night Raider looks short on experience as he has raced under rules on only two occasions.
GROUP FORM
You want a horse with a Group success on their CV as that is a trait shared by nine winners, with Night Of Thunder (2014) being the outlier in the pack. That is a concern for Notable Speech and Night Raider among others.
LAST TIME OUT
It is probably worth looking for a horse that won last time out as that is a trend achieved by seven winners. Night Of Thunder (2014) finished second, Galileo Gold (2016) placed third and Chaldean (2023) unseated on their previous outing before 2000 Guineas success.
ODDS
City Of Troy is the hot favourite with Paddy Power for the 2000 Guineas but only two of market leaders justified their position at the head of the betting.
Just six winners in the period could be found in the top three in the market, although nine were available a starting price of 16/1 or shorter.
RATING
Every winner of the 2000 Guineas since 2014 has been rated 109 or higher. The average rating of the winner in that period is 115.
SEASON FORM
Seven winners were making their seasonal reappearance, while the other three were having their second run of the campaign. Poetic Flare (2021) was the only member of the trio to have been successful on their first outing for the season.
2000 Guineas 2024 trends verdict
The trends suggest it is worth avoiding Night Raider as Karl Burke’s emerging star falls short in a number of areas.
It is possible to make a case for three runners but an above-average rating and previous Newmarket success makes CITY OF TROY the marginal pick ahead of Ghostwriter and Rosallion respectively.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Saturday’s Racing Tips
- Matt Chapman’s ITV Racing tips for Saturday at Newmarket, Goodwood and Thirsk
- Rory Delargy’s Newmarket tips for Saturday
- Ruby Walsh’s horse racing tips for Newmarket on Saturday
- Jason Weaver’s ITV Racing tips for Saturday at Newmarket, Goodwood and Thirsk
Read More on the 2000 Guineas
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- When is the 2000 Guineas? Newmarket date, start time, runners and betting
- Confirmed 2000 Guineas runners and riders for Saturday’s big race at Newmarket
- 2000 Guineas tips and runner-by-runner guide to Newmarket 3.35 on Saturday
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