Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ Value Plays for the Aintree Festival

A 9/1 winner for PJ last Sunday aswell as a 22/1 shot placed. He know turns his attention to his hometown to try and find you a winner.

Paul Jacobs Byline for Jumps Racing

The Grand National is almost here and our stable of pundits are on hand to give you all their leading fancies across the three-day festival.

It all leads up to the big one on Saturday, who will win the biggest prize in Jumps racing? Last year’s winner Corach Rambler is one of the favourites and could retain his title.

Our leading expert Paul Jacobs has given punters four picks with at least one horse across each day of the festival to choose from.

Grand National odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app.

Thursday 4.40pm – BLACK GERRY

An event race normally run at a hectic pace and despite the current ground conditions this year that is likely to be the case again with so many entries that like to gallop at the sharp end.

Homme Public has been on a sharp upward curve this season and following wins in three of his last four races, that may have been four had he not hit the second last at Ascot, the seven-year-old was given a refresher on the sidelines and could still be well handicapped off a new mark of 142.

However, all of his best form has come in smaller fields and on better ground as well. Still, he is respected along with Sans Bruit who we have surely yet to see the best of, the return to testing ground should suit Paul Nicholls’ charge based on his French form.

However, I fancy Gary Moore’s bigger-priced runner who has been racing over two and a half miles and up to three this term and could take a step forward by coming back to the minimum trip.

He showed he retains most of last season’s ability with a fair second at Plumpton last time out and ground conditions shouldn’t be a problem.

Down from a season-opening mark of 142 to 134, I fancy he is likely to outrun his double-figure price here if getting into a nice rhythm out the back and creeping closer from the cross fence.

Friday 1.45 –HEART WOOD

I thought that this Grade One Mildmay Novices Chase over three miles was up for grabs as it looks like a pretty moderate renewal. Chianti Classico was impressive in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, but I’m not so sure that he will be that much suited to this sharp track (he struggled at Kempton).

Giovinco has such a high cruising speed that surely he would be better off running over two and a half miles. I thought that likely favourite here, Inotherwayurthinkin won a pretty ordinary Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Festival as well. Being flattered to come home fully eight lengths clear off a pace that burnt out the front of the field from the top of the hill and he merely picked up the pieces.

He may well be rated some 10lbs behind the best of these but this test looks made to measure for the Henry de Bromhead charge. Ever since he won a Listed race in France as a youngster, this son of Choeur Du Nord has looked like an out-and-out stayer in the making. All the way through his hurdling days in Ireland that theory was merely cemented.

His seconds to Grangeclare West and Blood Destiny further confirmed that view and he finally hit winning form over fences in a big field at Leopardstown over 2m5f. On that occasion he was keen early on, so we can mark him up further, yet still managed to outstay his 24 rivals in simply tremendous style.

I can only see this further step up to three miles for the first time bringing about further improvement, which he must make, but with Broadway Boy in the field, this could turn into a deep test of stamina which he looks sure to appreciate.

Friday 2.20pm – ICARE ALLEN

As usual, this race has attracted a big field and looks as competitive as ever. It is hard to know how much more improvement there is to come from Boombawn following his game success at Kempton Park, while the lightly raced Masaccio looked firmly on the upgrade when waltzing away with a novice hurdle last time out.

The seven-year-old has been given an opening handicap mark of 129, and I reckon he is better than that and may actually take another step forward in a faster run race on slower ground and could be worth a saver behind the selection.

Three miles has always seemed a shade too far for Jonjo’s charge and added to his jumping errors at Cheltenham he went off at a false price (7/1) in the Pertemps Final.

Set to race off the same mark here (142) he will be much better suited to this two-and-a-half mile trip and his hurdling seems to be better suited by racing at a faster pace over shorter.

Add to the equation that the first-time hood could just squeeze out a bit more improvement from the bay gelding and anything in the region of 20/1 with the enhanced place terms would look very attractive.

Saturday 4pm – GALIA DES LITEAUX

I could write a whole essay on this year’s Grand National, but let’s get down to brass tacks, bottomless stayers need only apply this year and with the likely slower pace because of the prevailing conditions there will not be as much pressure in the jumping stakes as usual.

My first port of call was Mr Incredible, but Ruby Walsh told me in a podcast he is a slightly crazy character. Still, that doesn’t mean he can’t win having been under the care of Patrick Mullins all season.

He is only lightly raced, stays well, jumps well and is very unexposed for a stayer of his age. He was desperately unlucky last year when his equipment failed him after the Canal Turn second time around, and he ran a cracker on his first race back since April of last year when edged out under a big weight in the Midlands’ National.

If he gets into the same kind of rhythm again, he is a player. As are the likes of Meetingofthewaters (surprisingly given a miss by Mark Walsh), the obvious pick Vanillier and the old boy Delta Work.

However, I love the way Dan Skelton lays one out for a big race and GALIA DES LITEAUX’s big asset has always been her deep stamina and efficient jumping style. She was still closing on My Silver Lining at the back end of 3m5f of the Warwick Classic and her conqueror has cemented that form with another good run in the aforementioned Midlands National.

Going up in trip is a huge plus for her and with the enhanced place terms I am solidly onside with her set to get her beloved muddy conditions.

Read These Next on the Grand National 2024

The latest racing odds are on PaddyPower.com now

The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know