Horse Racing Tips: Paddy Pundits’ Epic Cheat Sheet for Day 1 at Aintree

GREY DAWNING did us a favour at Cheltenham and I see no reason why he can’t follow up on soft ground. He’s a strong stayer which is a must this week.

I was all over GREY DAWNING at Cheltenham in the Turners and I see no reason why he won’t go in again here. He stays well and goes in the mud.

GINNY’S DESTINY is a very assured jumper, he has got every chance at the prices.

I don’t see a reason why GREY DAWNING doesn’t win again after his Cheltenham success. The ground will suit too.

GREY DAWNING and Ginny’s Destiny lock horns for a third time over fences and, with the state of play currently tied at one-all, Dan Skelton’s 7-y-o is strongly fancied to tilt the scales in his favour with the heavy rain forecasted only enhancing his claims.

IL ETAIT TEMPS steps up in trip and that will help. I’m not convinced by the Turner’s Chase form of  Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny.

This is a pivotal moment for the Nicky Henderson camp. SIR GINO should win but with doubts over the stable form, the price will reflect that. Irish challenger Nurburgring can out-run his odds and is better than he showed at Cheltenham.

SIR GINO should be too strong for the talented Kargese. He looked special when last seen at Cheltenham on Trials Day and proved he goes in heavy ground.

NURBURGRING got a poor ride in the Triumph Hurdle last time and with a more aggressive ride can go closer. He looks over-priced to me.

I’m finding it hard to oppose SIR GINO. He’s the best horse in the race. He’s hard to back with Nicky Henderson’s stable being out of form but I just can’t oppose him.

The way SIR GINO saw off the very talented Burdett Road at Cheltenham in January marks him down as a juvenile of the highest class and he can see off Triumph runner-up Kargese and stretch his unbeaten record to four.

KARGESE was possibly a little unlucky at Cheltenham and there’s also a possibility that Sir Gino won’t be at his best, given the Nicky Henderson stable’s woes.

SHISHKIN is a course and distance winner and if we get a good run from Sir Gino earlier, I’m confident he can win. Gerri Colombe ran a career-best in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but will that leave a mark on him?

Corbetts Cross is fascinating but this is much harder than his National Hunt Chase win and it’s a huge step up in class. SHISHKIN really should run huge here as the defending champion.

GERRI COLOMBE was impressive here last season. He had a tough race in the Gold Cup but it was a career-best for him and he is the standout now.

I keep coming back to GERRI COLOMBE. I would normally be against horses that ran so well in the Gold Cup but Corbetts Cross has 13lbs to find on Gordon Elliott’s runner. So Gerri Colombe it is!

A winner at this meeting 12 months ago, GERRI COLOMBE ran the race of his life when finding only Galopin Des Champs too good in last month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup and a repeat of that sort of performance can see Gordon Elliott’s prolific 8-y-o prove a tough nut to crack here.

CORBETTS CROSS put in an under-appreciated winning performance at Cheltenham in the National Hunt Chase and Gerri Colombe has to bounce out of a career-best Gold Cup run.

It’s hard to look past BOB OLINGER who was second to State Man in the Irish Champion Hurdle after winning over this 2m 4f trip at the Cheltenham on New Year’s day.

I suspect LUCCIA will love this step up in trip and while she missed the Betfair Hurdle because of soft ground I have no worries about her on the surface.

IMPAIRE ET PASSE ran well in his first two starts before a disappointing Irish Champion Hurdle. He will be happier going two and a half miles and getting a lead here, and he is a fair price.

Bob Olinger and IMPAIRE ET PASSE were second and third behind State Man in the Irish Champion Hurdle in February but Impaire Et Passe can reverse the form now.

IMPAIRE ET PASSE seemed to resent a switch to front-running tactics when five lengths behind Bob Olinger in the Irish Champion Hurdle in February. His runner-up efforts to Teahupoo and State Man prior to that set the standard here and he can bounce back to form and turn the tables on Henry De Bromhead’s charge.

The tactics with IMPAIRE ET PASSE backfired last time when third to State Man. His Hatton’s Grace run at Fairyhouse behind Teahupoo is the best form on offer.

I’m hoping that the heavy ground suits ITS ON THE LINE but he fell at Becher’s Brook last season. A tentative pick.

Not many of these are absolute mud lovers. One who is, though, is the 2022 third ANNAMIX who goes for Patrick and Willie Mullins. Everything is right for a bold bid.

LIEUTENANT ROCCO has always been a good jumper. He is capable of putting up a huge show from near the front if he keeps out of trouble. If he’s fit enough, he looks a value play at the prices.

Annamix could go well but he blows hot and cold. He’s fit and well but I’m siding with BENNYS KING for Dan Skelton. He beat Hardline by a country mile at Leicester last time out and he’s got decent form.

ROMEO MAGICO was highly impressive at Down Royal last time and, while this is a much tougher assignment, the way he jumped and travelled that day indicates that there’s a bigger effort in him.

I ride ANNAMIX who put in a super run in the Topham Chase two years ago so he likes this place. Its On The Line has had two hard races in succession – the last barely a month ago.

UNEXPECTED PARTY was a very good winner of the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and a repeat of that should be good enough to win again.

The one I like is Unexpected Party’s improving stable companion HELTENHAM who is on a hat-trick and will travel well off a strong gallop. Solid each-way chance.

SANS BRUIT is a massive standout in terms of what I would be backing, on a day where it’s really hard to pick standouts. Two miles over fences should be ideal for him and he’s completely unexposed under these conditions.

SAINT ROI has a decent swing in the weights compared to Unexpected Party, who won at Cheltenham. I’m giving Saint Roi another chance as he’s capable of winning off a mark of 150.

HELTENHAM proved better than ever when scoring at Newbury last month and could be well served by a strongly-run race at the minimum trip.

This Aintree track should suit PATH DOROUX better than Cheltenham. He’s also better off at the weights against his Festival conqueror Unexpected Party.

BABY KATE looked very good when winning last November at Cheltenham. Patrick Mullins has kept the faith and so am I.

I really liked HONKY TONK HIGHWAY when she scored at Sandown and I see no reason why she shouldn’t progress and run well.

DIVA LUNA impressed at Market Rasen where she went straight into a Listed race on debut. That suggests Ben Pauling holds her in high regard so she should run well here.

BABY KATE‘s work has been very good at home and she’s in really good form. Patrick Mullins has chosen to ride her and she could be hard to beat. She’s won her only two starts and she can make that three.

HONKY TONK HIGHWAY made a good impression between the flags when sent off favourite in a listed event on Rules debut. She looked a classy mare when supplementing that success at Sandown.

I ride BABY KATE in the day one finale and she will handle the testing ground. She can go one better in this contest than her mother did eight years ago.