Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays across the tracks on Easter Monday

Value's the name of the game when PJ's in town and he fancies Churchstonewarrior in the Grand National at Fairyhouse at 17:00.

Paul Jacobs Byline for Jumps Racing

By / Horse Racing Tips / 1 month ago

Paul Jacobs’ Monday Racing Tips

14:05 Fairyhouse – San Martino
15:15 Fairyhouse – Whatcouldhavebeen (each-way)
16:40 Kempton – Baltimore Boy (each-way)
17:00 Fairyhouse – Churchstonewarrior

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

14:05 Fairyhouse – San Martino

SAN MARTINO is the one in a competitive novice’s handicap hurdle. All eyes will probably be on Cave Court who has been carrying all before him over fences and hurdles and was desperately unlucky to be brought down last time out and gets a chance to run off 109 again. Pacini could be the best of the three four-year-olds, and there was certainly nothing wrong with his distant second in the Grade Three Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle which was only his fifth career start so there could be plenty more to come especially with the first-time blinkers added. But the selection is an interesting play here after unseating due to the attention of a loose horse last time out at the third last when going nicely. This is probably a better strength in depth race, but if he gets into a similar jumping rhythm again he could readily outrun his price in what is a wide-open affair.

 

15:15 Fairyhouse – Whatcouldhavebeen (each-way)

WHATCOULDHAVEBEEN is the one that strokes me between the eyeballs, he was given a questionable ride last time out at Naas when given far too much to do from off the pace in a stop-start run race and running strongly through the line when the race was done and dusted. Interestingly he has been kept on the same mark here, so the assessor saw that run for its true worth and if he finally gets his stamina tested to the full here I suspect that the six-year-old will be very hard to keep out of the frame at the very least. Top weight O’Moore Park remains the dark horse here having been off the track for 596 days, but then he showed he retains plenty of his old ability when winning his maiden last month here, despite his jumping being sketchy to say the least. If he has learnt from that run you would expect the maestro trainer will have schooled him extensively and he should take another big step forward. But if he makes the marketplace, it gives us plenty of choices to find our ‘value each-way bet’.

16:40 Kempton – Baltimore Boy (each-way)

BALTIMORE BOY could be of interest at an each-way price. His sole win last season came off a mark of 83 so a 2lbs higher rating looks very fair. But the real key to his chance is twofold. Firstly, he needs a fast pace to chase to tow him into the race as he tends to lose a few lengths at the start and secondly, he seems to run his best race around the Sunbury On Thames track. A course and distance winner here last time, he followed that up with an even better effort when a length off Helm Rock in the London Series Final in September. Dragon Icon could be the biggest danger being so lightly raced and his run behind Penzance last time out was better than the result looked, eventually being beaten five lengths after looking the likely winner 300 yards out. I was interested in the top-weight Excel Power now that he runs off his lowest handicap mark for a long time, but I think he is a much better horse over a stiff seven furlongs rather than this mile and on his first run for the yard of James Horton.

17:00 Fairyhouse – Churchstonewarrior

CHURCHSTONEWARRIOR could well fit the bill. He has been set some stiff tasks of late and his run in the Savills Chase was chasing rainbows with no gold pot on the other side. But it is worth noting that he beat Mahlers Mission in the Grade Two Ten Up Chase a year ago which makes his mark of 147 very fair if you take that form very literally. It’s taking a chance, as he could make an early mistake and blow up but equally, he has the back class and engine to cause a minor surprise.

Novice chasers have a great record in this race with their unexposed profiles and potentially good marks. However, that does tend to mean that the more seasoned campaigners get ignored in the marketplace. Of the inexperienced runners, favourite Nick Rockett is worthy of respect with his yard finally getting the hang of winning this great race. But of the novices, I prefer the potentially better-weighted Hartur d’Arc who looked a thorough out-and-out stamina merchant and has a very lightweight to boot compared to some of his other first-season chasers.

Desertmore House also has the look of a bottomless and with him having no chance of getting into the Aintree National I suspect was always going to be his aim following his Kerry National win and his eye-catching eighth in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas.

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

14:05 Fairyhouse – San Martino
15:15 Fairyhouse – Whatcouldhavebeen (each-way)
16:40 Kempton – Baltimore Boy (each-way)
17:00 Fairyhouse – Churchstonewarrior

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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