Paul Jacobs’ Grand National NRMB Betting Tips:
Vanillier
Mr Incredible
Minella Crooner
The Goffer
*Paddy is now non runner money back on the Aintree National. So if your pick doesn’t run, you get your stake back. T&C’s apply.
A reduced field size of 34, a massive majority of Irish runners and several unexposed stayers make this year’s Randox Grand National and fascinating ante-post betting proposition.
I was at the unveiling of the weights in Liverpool on Tuesday and there were some interesting quotes doing the rounds including the possible view that the ground will be made not only safe, but very much on the soft side of good. That possibly came as a throwaway line by those connected with Aintree on the interview stage, but I am far from sure that it was merely a tongue in cheek answer as the race bids to stave off as much criticism as possible and slow down the running of the race.
It is logical to think that the big race revolves around the three top weights staying in, otherwise we could possibly get an 8lbs hike. Hewick is massively ground dependent and should Shark Hanlon pull him out during the week of the race if we get a wet few days, the shape of the contest changes completely. Noble Yeats won off 147 two seasons ago (set to race off 165), while if Conflated runs, I can’t see him jumping a clean round or staying the trip. So that’s the top three dealt with.
I thought Desertmore House was made for this, but he needs 25 to come out to get a run run. Kitty’s Light needs 19 and I’m not sure has the scope to fiddle his way around here, but Meetingofthewaters more realistically needs only nine to bypass the race and is on my substitute’s bench for picks.
With those factors built in to my thinking, here are my 4 against the field.
Vanillier
Let’s start with the obvious selection and likely favourite. He has a lovely pull in the weights with last year’s winner Corach Rambler and has been aimed solely at this event again after a gallant run in second last year. How the handicapper has only raised him 4lbs for his fast-finishing second is beyond me.
He has the perfect jump style for these fences, fiddling rather than standing off them, and I’m not sure his conqueror that day would have found much had Gavin Cromwell’s runner been closer turning for home. Everyone seemed, quite rightly, to concentrate on the winner that day, but Vanillier had the rest easily beaten off and I make him a Grand National ‘winner’ with only a 4lbs penalty, the Rambler is up a massive 13lbs!
Mr Incredible
Yes, Mr Incredible is a rogue, a slight nutter and will only do things on his own terms, but he has a huge engine and apart from the runner-up 12 months ago, he was by far the biggest eye catcher of the whole field. Go back and watch the race fully again and see how strongly he was travelling down the inside channel turning into the back straight last year before a leather broke and his saddle slipped leaving Brian Hayes with nowhere to go but a landing on terra firma.
Set to run in the Midlands National on March 16th, a big run there would see his current odds collapse. The horse has apparently been under the care of Patrick Mullins all year and this race has been the duo’s mission throughout the season. Closutton know they have a well handicapped horse on their hands here, although how the assessor has put him up 5lbs (hasn’t run since) and Vanillier 4lbs is one of the most unsolved mysteries of this year’s weight announcement! He is the joker in the pack, but no one will be laughing should he bound home in the second Saturday in April in the world’s greatest race.
Minella Crooner
You have to enter in your ante-post profile at least one confirmed mudlark, in case we have a spring deluge at the Liverpool track and the Welsh Grand National winner Nassalam is the obvious candidate, but I am not so sure he is well treated off 161 having been somewhat flattered by the way the Welsh National fell apart behind him. Coko Beach loves it deep, but his chance has come and gone and he’s not well treated but I will stay loyal to the master of Cullentra Gordon Elliott, with this unexposed youngster Minella Crooner.
To my eyes there is no better trainer for Aintree than Gordon and that this very lightly raced eight-year-old has somewhat gone under the radar. He was strongly fancied for last year’s National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, but he had a back problem which has seemingly been fixed and I have been more than satisfied with his efforts this season culminating in a cracking staying on third in the Grade Three Savills New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore.
He is no less than 10lbs better off with I Am Maximus for beating that Irish National hero over three miles in a beginner’s chase in his novice year and with a place in the line-up almost guaranteed, apart from Vanillier, nothing will be staying on stronger up the long home stretch granted a clear round and luck in the run. I like him a lot.
The Goffer
Gordon Elliott’s other charge The Goffer needs 13 horses to come out above him in the list, but I have kept looking back at his run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Park and then his final flourish in the Kerry National and reckon he is probably one of the strongest stayers in the entry who fulfils the need for the average ground description of good to soft perfectly. He tends to jump better out of spring ground and based on his Ultima Handicap Chase run at Cheltenham behind Corach Rambler last season, he looks very nicely treated with no weight at all on his back.
Add in the fact that he remains fairly unexposed over a marathon trip, raced over three miles plus just the three times, he had a lovely winning warm up run in a challenge race on the Flat last Sunday and has had this race on his radar for a long time. The seven-year-old looks likely springer material come the week of the race. It is worth remembering that this will only be his 20th start under rules, 12th over fences, and he could take the necessary step forward here to become a big player.
Paul Jacobs’ Grand National NRMB Betting Tips:
Vanillier
Mr Incredible
Minella Crooner
The Goffer
*Paddy is now non runner money back on the Aintree National. So if your pick doesn’t run, you get your stake back. T&C’s apply.
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