The County Hurdle is one of the big betting races of the Cheltenham Festival – and a bumper field of 23 runners have been declared for the latest renewal.
It is a race that has thrown up plenty of shocks over the years and last year was no exception as Faivoir emerged through the pack to score at a big price of 33/1.
That was trainer Dan Skelton’s fourth success in the County Hurdle in the last nine years and the race has been passed back and forth in recent times as Willie Mullins has the same number of winners in that period.
County Hurdle odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Read More: Cheltenham Festival On TV Today | Cheltenham Festival Free Live Stream | Cheltenham Festival Radio Coverage | Cheltenham Results
County Hurdle trends
AGE
Every winner of the County Hurdle since 2014 has been aged between five and eight, which is a concern for last season’s scorer, Faivoir, who turned nine at the start of the year.
COURSE FORM
Nine winners of the last 10 renewals had never been first past the post at Cheltenham, although seven had previously run at the track.
DISTANCE FORM
The last 10 winners all boasted at least one prior success over 2m or 2m1f, while nine of those had run at least three times over 1m7f to 2m1f.
HURDLES FORM
You want to look for a horse that has won no more than four hurdle races and no more than two handicap hurdles, as that is a profile shared by the last 10 winners.
LAST TIME OUT
It is not worth looking at breaks as Wicklow Brave (2014) won six days after his last race while Arctic Fire (2017) defied a 418-day absence. Therefore, it is worth looking at the form of previous runs and eight of the last 10 winners finished in the top three last time out.
~
ODDS
It is not a race for favourites as three winners could be found in the top three in the betting since 2014, with the other seven all returning at 11/1 or bigger.
RATING
Seven of the last 10 winners were rated between 134 to 141, which is a mark against the first five and last eight in the line-up.
SEASON FORM
Apart from the previously mentioned Arctic Fire (2017), a common profile between recent winners is two starts or more for the season.
WEIGHT
It only knocks Pied Piper out of the equation but eight of the last 10 winners of the County Hurdle carried 11st 4lbs or less to victory.
County Hurdle trends verdict
Well, this looks wide open because only three horses in the field fail to meet the most important trends on the board – Aucunrisque, Faivoir and Mr Freedom.
Therefore, we have to dig deeper into the lesser statistics to try and separate the bulk of the runners.
Dan Skelton has mastered the handicaps this week – and this race over the years – so L’Eau Du Sud, last seen finishing second in the Betfair Hurdle, gets the tentative nod ahead of King Of Kingsfield by virtue of his previous outing at Cheltenham.
Despite being at the front end of Paddy Power’s betting, a couple of favourites have won in the last four years, which suggests the trend of long-odds scorers might be weakening.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Cheltenham Day 4 Tips
- Matt Chapman’s Cheltenham tips for Friday at the Festival
- Cheltenham day four tips from Mick Fitzgerald for Friday’s races
- Ruby Walsh’s Cheltenham tips for every race on Friday
- Paddy Power’s epic Friday cheat sheet of Cheltenham tips for day four
Read More on the Cheltenham Festival 2024
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- Cheltenham Festival schedule and race times for 2024
- Cheltenham weather forecast, going and track conditions
- Cheltenham Free Bet Offers: Why Paddy’s better than the rest for Festival fun
The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
