Cheltenham Tips: Paddy Power’s Epic Tuesday Cheat Sheet for day one of the Festival

Firefox is the only horse to have beaten Ballyburn. That was on soft ground and we’re starting on slow ground. He is definitely a player in this contest in Ballyburn’s absence. On the preview circuit, lots of people were getting excited about Tullyhill, but his jumping needs to be better.

I have long been a fan of Jeriko Du Reponet (each-way) and we get a price because the Nicky Henderson stable is under a cloud. I’d be very disappointed if he’s healthy if he doesn’t finish at least in the first three.

Mistergif (each-way). He jumps like a gazelle and has lots of speed. Unexposed and over priced for the opening race of the Festival.

There are only 12 declared and none are real tearaway front runner so Tullyhill’s jumping mightn’t come under as much pressure.

The race has been blown wide open with Ballyburn’s defection to Wednesday’s Gallaghers Hurdle. I like his stablemates Mystical Power & Mistergif to run big races now.

I’m going for a little bit of a surprise, Hunters Yarn, who was very strong last time when winning at Fairyhouse. He looks a value bet.

Gaelic Warrior is the most talented horse in this race. If he gets into a rhythm out in front I don’t think they will get near him.

Gaelic Warrior is the  best horse in the race and the slow ground will help. The fact that he’s jumping fences rather than hurdles may help to negate his preference for jumping right-handed at the obstacles.

A small each-way stake on Master Chewy in what is a head-scratcher of a race.

Quilixios was back to form over fences in Naas and I think he’ll run a big race.

It looks like connections have protected The Goffer’s mark all season as we didn’t see him until a two-mile stable yard ‘challenge’ race last month, where he ran out a convincing winner. He’s primed to go close.

I’ve long been a supporter of Chianti Classico (each-way). I loved the way he kept on at Kempton against a course specialist and he will get an aggressive ride from David Bass ride.

The Paddy Power Chase winner Meetingofthewaters is a young, progressive and exciting chaser.

The boking of Harry Cobden catches the eye on Trelawne. Meeingofthewaters has his chance but the price has gone for me now.

I fancy The Goffer, he’s back on form to repeat a good run from last year.

It is very hard to get away from State Man as the most likely winner, especially with Lossiemouth going to the Mares’ Hurdle.  Iberico Lord could be one for the places.

There’s really not much point in taking ages over this as quite clearly State Man has to underperform not to score. Nemean Lion is the each-way bet if you don’t want to back the odds-on  favourite.

State Man was runner up to Constitution Hill last year in the Champion Hurdle and is unbeaten this season. Just look at his form.

It’s State Man’s to lose since reigning champ Constitution Hill was ruled out last week. Iberico Lord could run a big race but I’ll be watching how Nicky Henderson’s runs in the first to see if they are back to form.

I think State Man is a certainty.

Unoriginal I’m afraid, but Lossiemouth is the highest rated runner in the field and unless she gets very keen and runs herself into the ground she should be winning. Marie‘s Rock is definitely a contender at a price to be placed.

Of course Lossiemouth can bounce after one run following a long lay-off but she bolted up from Love Envoi last time and she’s simply the class act against this lot. The longer 2m 4f trip should be no issue.

Ashroe Diamond is bred to appreciate the ground and the trip. She is unbeaten against her own sex over hurdles.

This is all about Lossiemouth who was awesome on her comeback run.

I have to go with Lossiemouth, who was unbelievable last year in the Triumph Hurdle last season and again on her reappearance.

Connections must’ve been happy enough with the handicap mark as Liari (each-way) handles soft ground fine and is a strong traveller in his races. How Milan Tino runs gives us another pointer to Sir Gino’s chance on Friday.

Nothing that grabs me here and I’m chancing Roaring Legend (each-way) for Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy who had the big Imperial Cup win with Go Dante over the weekend. My hope is 7lb better off with Liari for a defeat at Musselburgh and a strong pace to aim at should suit.

Plenty of good judges fancy Milan Tino. His handicap mark looks like it could be ‘generous’.

I’ll chance Ose Partir based on his Christmas run at Leopardstown rather than a disappointing run at the Dublin Racing Festival. He should have an each-way chance.

An outsider Eagle Fang
could run a big each-way race.

Apple Away runs here instead of the Ultima earlier on the card and isn’t without a chance as she has good chase form. Only seven runners means just two places but she may be a player in the betting without the fav market too.

A small field and none of these are certain stayers. Salvador Ziggy did nothing in America last time but it’s fairly easy to forgive him that run and I’ll chance him for Gordon Elliott and Robert James. Should be bang in the mix.

Corbetts Cross has proven Grade 1 form and sets the standard. I ride Embassy Gardens in the race so I hope I’m wrong about Corbetts Cross!

I’m with Corbetts Cross  ahead of Embassy Gardens mainly on  their running in the Albert Bartlett last season. The former looks a stayer.

Corbetts Cross with Derek O’Connor booked to ride can get the job done.