Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips
15:15 Doncaster – First Lord De Cuet
15:25 Leopardstown – Coillte Aris
16:35 Leopardstown – Outside The Door (each way)
18:30 Newcastle – Illusionist (each way)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
15:15 Doncaster – First Lord De Cuet
For staying chasers rated up to 125, this looks like a competitive old race and I think that you could make fairly strong arguments for at least half a dozen of the 10 runners. Storm Control has been very lightly campaigned of late and will have needed his December comeback, but following another significant break I would much rather back him on a better surface and he still has to prove that he retains the majority of his old ability.
Another 11-year-old, Fidux, has shown bits and pieces of his old form, but despite a tumbling mark I am still not convinced by him even if the ground does dry out appreciably. So I am quite happy to row in with the David Pipe raider First Lord De Cuet who at the beginning of the season was being talked about as a possible Welsh National player but has performed well below that desired standard.
Still, the assessor has relented and his rating has dropped from a high of 132 about a year ago to his current mark of just 119, which includes the 6lbs claim of his conditional rider Gearoid Harney here. Kempton Park was no good to him last time out as he once again jumped to his left and this return to a galloping left-hand track on better ground looks like the recipe for a much better run from the West Country raider.
15:25 Leopardstown – Coillte Aris
Comfortably the biggest field on the card and, as a consequence, the most wide-open race to boot. I thought Dream Escape was interesting off a mark of just 93 and I fancy he will put more than his best foot forward here which has not been in evidence on three qualifying runs, while Ivane at least has some kind of form in the book, but looks vulnerable to a few of these. Gamagin still looks fairly treated on the back of his last time-out success and looks sure to play a part here, but both of those entries are surely vulnerable to those who have yet to reveal their full talents.
The nod goes to the six-year-old mare Coillte Aris who was very well backed last time out at Clonmel but had her chance hugely compromised by taking a wide course all the way around and as a consequence, she raced way too freely and was done and dusted before turning for home that day. Set to race from off the same mark here (91) I am tipping her up in the hope that JJ Slevin gets her some cover and lets her pop away in midfield at worst before being able to show her true colours.
16:35 Leopardstown – Outside The Door (each way)
I actually thought for the prize money we would get a single-figure entry for this stamina-sapping contest and was pleasantly surprised to see 12 runners declared here. The obvious one that your eyes are drawn to is Young Dev after he stayed on strongly to win at Navan off a mark of 113 and I thought, given the fashion of that success, that a 6lbs penalty was very fair.
But I am really sweet on the claims of the Padraig Roche runner Outside The Door who to my eyes has for a while been crying out for a really deep test of stamina. You could hardly say that he is a standout from a handicapping perspective here, set to race off 110, last win off 102, but this extra yardage is going to be more than just his cup of tea, throw in a scone and a digestive for good measure.
All that this son of Milan does is stay and that is no surprise given he is by a stamina-laden Overbury mare and granted a clear round of jumping and some luck in the run he looks an exciting each-way play if ready to go following a 105-day break.
18:30 Newcastle – Illusionist (each way)
This race quite naturally centers around the multiple winners He’s An Angel and the six-timer-seeking Bonito Cavallo. Both have been in tremendous form and back up to six furlongs here, I fancy that the last named is the more likely to continue that amazing winning sequence. Still, along with the poor relation of that trio, Boafo Boy (only seeking a hat-trick), they will make the market for our much more experienced campaigner, Illusionist.
Indeed, the seven-year-old is not one to set your clock by as he hasn’t won for 15 outings (last win in May 2022), but he has been placed multiple times since that success off 84, 78 (twice) and 76 and now gets the chance to run off 75. I would have preferred to see him race from a higher box to get some kind of cover, but if there is plenty of pace in the race I am sure Sam James can tuck him in behind and bring him with his usual late race to claim the majority of the field on the final uphill climb.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips
15:15 Doncaster – First Lord De Cuet
15:25 Leopardstown – Coillte Aris
16:35 Leopardstown – Outside The Door
18:30 Newcastle – Illusionist
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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