The Ascot Chase is the last Grade 1 on the British racing schedule before the Cheltenham Festival and a small-but-select field are set to go to post.
L’Homme Presse is unusually using the race as a prep for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, while Ahoy Senor is hoping to punch his ticket to the Ryanair Chase, a race that Pic D’Orhy hoping to enhance his credentials.
Fakir D’oudairies, the winner of 2022 renewal, was not confirmed at final declarations so the Dan Skelton-trained Sail Away is pitched into top-level company for the first time and looking to scoop some decent prize money.
Ascot Chase odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Ascot Chase trends
AGE
Seven of the last 10 winners of the Ascot Chase were aged between seven and nine.
COURSE FORM
A previous outing and victory at Ascot is a trend set by eight winners in the last 10 years so experience of the track appears key. Waiting Patiently (2018) and Fakir D’oudairies (2022) were the two exceptions to score on debut at the Berkshire course.
DISTANCE FORM
A previous victory over a distance of 2m4f to 2m6f is a must, while every winner since Shishkin (2023) had run over the trip on at least two occasions.
GRADED FORM
A previous Grade 1-2 success was achieved by eight of the last 10 winners, with only Riders Onthe Storm (2020) and Dashel Drasher (2021) – the lowest-rated in the period – defying this stat.
LAST TIME OUT
All the horses in the line up for this year’s renewal meet the trend of nine of the last 10 winners scoring within 56 days of their last run. L’Homme Presse is the only runner to have scored LTO – achieved by six of the last 10 winners.
ODDS
Paddy Power’s betting for the Ascot Chase usually has it spot on because eight winners since 2014 were sent off as the favourite or second favourite.
RATING
Seven of the last 10 winners boasted a rating of 164 or higher. L’Homme Presse is the only horse in this year’s line up to meet this trend, although Ahoy Senior (163) and Pic D’Orhy (162) come close.
SEASON FORM
Ideally, you want to look for a horse that has had at least two runs and one win in the 2023/24 season.
Ascot Chase 2024 trends verdict
The trends suggest L’HOMME PRESSE and Pic D’Orhy are clear of their rivals and it is the Cheltenham Gold Cup prospect that gets the nod by virtue of his superior rating and victory last time out.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Saturday’s Racing Tips
- Matt Chapman’s ITV Racing tips for Saturday at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton
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- Saturday’s ITV Racing tips from Rory Delargy
- Mick Fitzgerald’s ITV Racing tips for Saturday at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton
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