Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays across the tracks on Sunday

Value's the name of the game when PJ's in town and he likes The Big Breakaway in the 3.35 at Exeter.

Paul Jacobs Byline for Jumps Racing

By / Horse Racing Tips / 3 months ago

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

1.57 Lingfield – Ten O’Clock
2.35 Exeter – Bredon Hill Dart
3.15 Navan – Fromheretoeternity
3.35 Exeter – The Big Breakaway

    *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

      1.57 Lingfield – Ten O’Clock

      Having an interest in a three-year-old sprint handicap on the all-weather at this time of the year is probably, in general, an unwise betting position to take, but this race looks to have a very nice shape to it. Smooth Silesie is still a maiden after nine starts and has been tried held up and playing up top, the former may well suit her best, while Unavailable is zero for eight and on a line through Musical Diva there is little between the duo here, but it is the Jamie Osborne runner Ten O’Clock that rattle my betting cage.

      The daughter of Ardad was out the back in three starts as a two-year-old beaten an aggregate of 51 lengths, but I loved her comeback run at Wolverhampton, incidentally behind Musical Diva which leaves her with little to find with the above duo. That day she was never really put into the race that day at the Dunstall Park track, but off her lowly mark she has to be worthy of consideration here.

      2.35 Exeter – Bredon Hill Dart

      This is a fascinating novice hurdle with the penalised runners, Hasthing, Josh The Boss and Lowry’s Bar set to try and give away 8lbs to their seven other rivals on heavy ground over this stiff extended two and a quarter miles.

      My golden rule is always to try and oppose a penalised runner in novice chases and hurdles and although Josh The Boss is clearly the pick of the winners in this race courtesy of his unseating at the last in a Grade Two at Sandown Park, I feel he is vulnerable to Home Free and probably to a lesser extent the selection Bredon Hill Dart, which I know is a bit left field pick, but that is what this column is about.

      Two bumper runs is precious little evidence to play on for the Sue Gardner runner, but that second national hunt start was way better than his finishing position suggests, beaten 23 lengths, but every chance approaching the furlong marker. The betting will obviously tell us more, but I am anticipating a significant step up, as he must do, in this national hunt novice.

            3.15 Navan – Fromheretoeternity

            This is the sort of low grade staying handicap hurdle which always fascinates me as there are always a few ‘lurkers’ hiding away in the pack and sometimes even connections can’t identify them!

            A winner of eight academy awards from 13 nominations, the film of said selection deals with infidelity, lack of self esteem and trying to garner something that is unobtainable. In three outings over hurdles this mare was never ever going to land a gold medal, as it was simply out of her reach racing over a bare two miles.

            However, Declan Queally’s charge Fromheretoeternity has long been on my radar since being beaten some 88 lengths on her hurdling debut in a maiden event at Gowran Park. On paper that run looks like a right old stuffing, but she raced kindly, if a little keen, in behind the leaders that day and jumping well in the main until a mistake at the fourth last just unsettled her a wee bit. She managed to get back on an even keel though towards the third last and thereafter weakened back through the field.

            However, she was hardly overcharged from the saddle that day and subsequent runs behind Ile Antlantique and Jetara (her first over two and a half miles) were never going to see her placed let along open her account. This step up to two and three quarter miles is probably a minimum for her, but a handicap debut off a mark of 88 will do for me if she brings her point to point form to the table.

            3.35 Exeter – The Big Breakaway

            It’s the same old story of eyeing the first four to qualify for the final at Cheltenham, but this is a fair prize in its own rate and several of these will need to win to even give themselves a chance of getting into the race in March. Mill Green is kind of the marker here having run really well in veteran chases this winter and this will only be the veteran’s fourth start of the campaign.

            My Drogo continues on the comeback trail, but needs to show a lot more on the back of his ninth at Aintree way back in October and there are lots of question marks about several others especially Captain Margs who surely wants much better ground. But at the prices I fancy a ‘value bet’ on the Joe Tizzard’s charge The Big Breakaway, who has fallen off a cliff this season over fences.

            He went with plenty of zest in the Badger Beer at Wincanton, but there have been several backward steps since then. As a consequence of those runs he has dropped to a handicap mark of 135 and I am happy to take a chance with the big horse here.

            Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

            1.57 Lingfield – Ten O’Clock
            2.35 Exeter – Bredon Hill Dart
            3.15 Navan – Fromheretoeternity
            3.35 Exeter – The Big Breakaway

              *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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