Horse Racing Tips: A 10/1 shout tops Rory Delargy’s Newbury picks on Saturday

Rory likes the look of Brentford Hope in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (15.15).

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Rory Delargy’s Newbury Racing Tips

13.30 Newbury – Kyntara
14.05 Newbury – Sam Brown
14.40 Newbury – Edwardstone
15.15 Newbury – Brentford Hope

    *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

      13.30 Newbury – Kyntara

      Once again, the conditions help narrow the field and while plenty can cope with soft ground, the eye is drawn to the wonderfully consistent Kyntara, who has won both his starts on heavy ground and has lifetime record on going described as soft or heavy by Timeform of 122212. He would have won a Pertemps Qualifier last time but for losing his footing after jumping the last, and he remains fairly treated despite a further rise in the weights for that effort.

      14.05 Newbury – Sam Brown

      I find it hard to commit cash to the Denman Chase, largely because Shishkin represents theoretical value on the form he was showing in the King George, but at the end of the day he’s still Shishkin, and even his biggest fans must admit that he can get out of bed in one of two moods these days. He’s almost impossible to beat on his good days, but his refusal at Ascot on his return did not come out of the blue, and he has looked reluctant on a couple of other occasions in recent seasons. Even then he can pull races out of the fire, as he almost did in last year’s Ryanair, but I simply can’t bring myself to back him at the prices.

      Protektorat made some appeal at the midweek prices, but with ante-post punters typically ignoring Shishkin (no money back for a Nicky U-turn before declarationa), his price has shrunk markedly and he’s hardly a safe choice either given his losing run. He’s also characterised as a bold jumper, but he tends to lose ground at his fences more often than he gains it, and while he has a fair chance, he’s priced too conservatively.

      Hitman, as a colleague said recently, seems allergic to winning and won’t stay 3m on testing ground in any case, while the going is also a big negative for Does He Know. That leaves Sam Brown who hated the firmish ground in this race last year but is a reliable performer in the mud, with a record on heavy ground at up to three miles that reads 1113. He shouldn’t quite be good enough to win this, but neither should Zanza or Secret Investor in recent years. And simply finding a horse likely to give its running in these types of races is a big plus.

        14.40 Newbury – Edwardstone

        Edwardstone failed to cope with a modest pace upped to 2½m in the Silviniaco Chase but wasn’t given a hard time once his chance had gone at Kempton and is capable of getting back on track at his ideal trip. He beat a strong field in the Tingle Creek last term and finished ahead of Champion Chase winner Energumene in the Clarence House Chase. Both were beaten by Editeur du Gite there, but that gelding was gifted an easy lead and is hard to pass under such circumstances.

        Edwardstone looked to retain all his ability when second in the Schloer Chase behind Jonbon, again giving that rival too much rope and ridden with a view to the future. He built on that when splitting Jonbon and Haddex des Obeaux in the Tingle Creek where a rare jumping lapse at the eighth fence left him poorly placed again. He needn’t be ridden so cold in his races and with Editeur du Gite again in opposition, I’d like to think that Alan King and Tom Cannon will be aware of the danger of letting that rival get loose. He will be better suited by the testing ground than that rival in any case, and ought to get the job done facing much his easiest task of the last two seasons.

        15.15 Newbury – Brentford Hope

        There’s no reason not to take a swing at things in the Betfair Hurdle with a couple of firms offering seven places on each-way bets and my main fancy is one I mentioned earlier in the season as capable of winning a pot like this. Brentford Hope was beaten in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle over C&D when last seen but ran well on balance and is the type to find more progress now back on testing ground given he was a demonstrably better horse on the Flat when the ground was soft or heavy. His lifetime record on ground described in that way by Timeform is 131131 and he’s only had one try on genuine winter ground over hurdles, when winning easily at Huntingdon last April.

        Since that success, he has been running consistently (ignoring a run on quick ground in the Swinton at Haydock), but while the form figures may suggest that his progress has plateaued, I’m more than happy to give him another chance to prove himself a mudlark.

          Rory Delargy’s Newbury Racing Tips

          13.30 Newbury – Kyntara
          14.05 Newbury – Sam Brown
          14.40 Newbury – Edwardstone
          15.15 Newbury – Brentford Hope

            *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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