While none of the runners in Saturday’s Paddy Power Cotswold Chase are likely to be major players in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, it still looks like a cracking contest that could determine key targets at major spring festivals.
Stay Away Fay is pitched into open company on just his third start over fences despite the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase being his Cheltenham Festival aim, last year’s winner Ahoy Senor could be rerouted to the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle if he fails to retain his title, while connections of Coral Gold Cup hero Datsalrightgino are eager to see whether they have a top-level animal on their hands.
Royale Pagaille will need to back up the form of his Betfair Chase success, last season’s Brown Advisory scorer The Real Whacker is bidding to bounce back from two poor runs, while Capodanno is sent across the Irish Sea by Willie Mullins.
Paddy Power Cotswold Chase odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Paddy Power Cotswold Chase trends
Eight of the last 10 winners of the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase were aged between seven and nine. That’s already a negative against 10-year-old Royale Pagaille.
Ahoy Senor (2023) is the only winner in the last 10 years to have had less than two career appearances at Cheltenham, while six of those had already won at the home of the Jumps.
Nine winners of the last 10 renewals had at least five previous runs over three miles or further under their hooves, with Frodon (2019) being the only exception and he subsequently went on to win the King George!
A previous win in at least a Grade 3 has been achieved by the last 10 winners of the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase, with the last four having already scored at Grade 1 level.
LAST TIME OUT
Eight winners since 2014 were running within 56 days of the previous outing. A win last time out is not necessary, however, as only five were successful before heading to Cheltenham (or Sandown in 2021).
Paddy Power’s betting is a fairly accurate guide to the likely outcome as seven winners of the race since 2014 could be found in the top three in the market, although only two favourites obliged. Royale Pagaille, Stay Away Fay and The Real Whacker are the leading trio in our book after final declarations.
A quality horse is required to win the contest as eight of the last 10 winners were rated 159 or higher by the British handicapper. Stay Away Fay is the only horse to fall below this figure, which is hardly surprising due to his novice status.
Seven of the last 10 winners of the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase had two runs for the season, with the same number having won once.
Paddy Power Cotswold Chase 2024 trends verdict
We may not be dealing with the greatest staying chasers on the block but this looks a serious race and the trends indicate that THE REAL WHACKER could return to winning ways, with his form at Cheltenham potentially proving useful.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Saturday’s Racing Tips
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