Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value plays across the tracks

PJ's teed up four fancies to see if it can be a Super Sunday at Thurles & Lingfield.

Paul Jacobs Generic

By / Horse Racing Tips / 3 months ago

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

14:10 Thurles – Ahead Of The Posse
14:25 Lingfield – Nurse Susan
15:20 Thurles – Zoffanian
15:35 Lingfield – Laskalin

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

14:10 Thurles – Ahead Of The Posse

At first glance, this looked a really tricky puzzle to solve, but that kind of medium is simply perfect for trying to find some value plays. Emancipator comes here in cracking form and has built up a really good understanding with young John Shinnick. Still, he will require another career best to land this, while Falco Blitz was tempting off a mark of 121 in this grade. But in the end, I have gone slightly left of centre with the novice, AHEAD OF THE POSSE.

At times in his races the Shantou gelding has looked as though his mind is not fully on the job as he tends to hit a flat spot, hence the first-time cheek pieces, and yet there is no way that he was going to get near the classy Facile Vega over two miles last time out following a short break.

Granted, his jumping needs to improve, he was very sloppy at Sligo at the back end of last year, but a very lowly mark of 106 allied to the step-up in trip may well be the answer to him raising his game. There is an engine in there at this level and he will have no weight on his back either.

14:25 Lingfield – Nurse Susan

Too keen for his own good at Ascot last time out, I have marked up the run of Gowel Road there and this is a significant drop in grade for this very lightly raced eight-year-old who was punted at big odds in the 24 hours leading up to that Long Walk Hurdle.

He has claims if anywhere near his best as does Alaphillipe who has had precious little racing since injuring himself when second in the Pertemps Final of 2022. He returns to hurdling off a mark of 135 and could run well, but I cannot get away from the likely market leader, NURSE SUSAN and even at the price I think the mare is a value bet.

She was a really promising novice in 2022, finishing a close-up fourth to Love Envoi in the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, but then was on the sidelines for 613 days. But Skelton has persevered with her and she has repaid that patience with a clear-cut win on her first run over two and a half miles at Cheltenham. To my eyes, she has always been about stamina and this extra yardage is right up her street and a 4lbs penalty looks very kind.

15:20 Thurles – Zoffanian

There are several entries here that you have to go way back in their careers to make a good cause for such is the lack of decent form in many of the profiles and ZOFFANIAN fits snuggly into that category.

It wasn’t too long ago that he finished second to Annual Invictus over three miles at Cheltenham in a class two event, only just backing out in the final 150 yards, and more recently two outings back on December 17th when he was a real eye-catcher finishing fifth of 16 behind Pakens Rock off a mark of 124.

He was definitely better than his finishing position suggests last time out at Leopardstown, and set to run off a career low of 120 I think that the seven-year-old fits the ‘Value Bet’ niche perfectly here when many of his rivals have plenty of questions to answer as well.

15:35 Lingfield – Laskalin

If the Surrey track thaws well and receives the showers forecast for the area, this renewal of the Surrey National over an extended three-and-a-half miles is going to be a real slugfest. My eyes were first drawn the way of Notachance who would have taken this lot on his back and carried them over the line in his prime. Now 24lbs below his career high, his two runs this time have been underwhelming to say the least, but Kingy wouldn’t be keeping him in training unless he thought he retains at least a fair degree of his old ability.

I also considered Blade Runner who struggled early on in the Welsh National before rallying on the final circuit only for that effort to leave its mark, this is significantly easier off a lower rating, but it was the Venetia Williams’ trained charge, LASKALIN, that I came down on the side of. In all his races, this lightly raced nine-year-old has been crying out for a deep test of stamina. He was a long way ahead of Notachance last time out, having only got going in the final half mile that afternoon. Dropped a further 2lbs in the weights, this could be his chance to shine stepping up in trip.

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

14:10 Thurles – Ahead Of The Posse
14:25 Lingfield – Nurse Susan
15:20 Thurles – Zoffanian
15:35 Lingfield – Laskalin

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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