King George VI Chase 2023 trends and stats for Kempton 2.30 on Boxing Day

Can the history books throw up a winner?

By / Horse Racing Tips / 6 months ago

The King George VI Chase is one of the biggest races of the season as the leading staying chasers go to war at Kempton.

The first three home in last year’s renewal – Bravemansgame, Royale Pagaille and Frodon – will take their chance once again, although they are likely to face one of the best in the game in recent years as dual Cheltenham Festival winner Allaho is set to cross the Irish Sea in a bid to hand trainer Willie Mullins a second win in three years.

Despite being one of the most prestigious Grade 1s on the schedule, there are question marks over the principal players so a look through the history books could help point us in the direction of this season’s scorer.

King George VI Chase odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.

King George VI Chase trends

AGE

Eight of the last 10 winners of the King George VI Chase were aged between seven and eight – the exceptions to the rule being Clan Des Obeaux (2018) at the age of six and nine-year-old Cue Card (2015).

CHASE FORM

A fair bit of experience over fences is required as seven winners in the last 10 years had between six and 16 chase starts, while six of those had between five and eight chase victories.

COURSE FORM

Horses with a previous outing at Kempton are worth keeping onside as eight of the last 10 winners had at least one run at the course on their CV, while five were successful.

That could be a worry for backers of Allaho, who has never been to Kempton, although that did not stop stablemate Tornado Flyer (2021) landing the spoils.

DISTANCE FORM

You want to look for a horse that is tried and tested at the trip as eight winners since 2013 had more than five starts and at least one victory over a distance of 2m7f to 3m1f.


LAST TIME OUT

Eight of the last 10 winners had previously run within the last 44 days, while five were successful last time out.

The Betfair Chase is a key pointer to this because four winners of the King George VI Chase in that period tackled the Haydock Grade 1 on their previous outing.

RATING

Seven winners since 2013 were rated in excess of 162, although it is worth noting that Thistlecrack (2016) did not boast an official mark as it was just his fourth attempt over fences.

ODDS

The market has regularly found the winner of the King George VI Chase as seven of the last 10 winners were in the top three in the betting. Clan Des Obeaux (2018), Frodon (2020) and Tornado Flyer (2021) were the double-digit priced winners during the period.

King George VI Chase 2023 trends verdict

He’s been hugely underwhelming in two starts this season but the trends suggest last year’s hero BRAVEMANSGAME can successfully defend his King George VI Chase crown to join the elite club of multiple winners.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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