Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays on Sunday

Value's the name of the game when PJ's in town - and he's got four Sunday shouts at Carlisle & Navan.

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By / Horse Racing Tips / 7 months ago

Paul Jacobs’ Horse Racing Tips

12:25 Carlisle – Five Dollar Fine (each way)
13:45 Navan – Ferrum (each way)
14:45 Carlisle – Wavelength
14:55 Navan – Pour Pavore

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

12.25 Carlisle – Five Dollar Fine (each way)

Not the most obvious race of the day to have a ‘value’ play in, but one that has a nice betting shape to it with the three top weights likely to make this a lop sided punting heat, but at the prices I happy for any of those to land this opening two mile handicap chase.

That points me in the direction of bottom weight Five Dollar Fine, trained by the hugely talented Ann Hamilton who does well with her chasers at this level of the game. Like many of my selections today I am hoping that the make-up of this contest will really suit him with plenty of pace on so that his ability to act on the testing ground will bring him into play late on.

The son of Shantou is set to run off his lowest ever rating, both over hurdles and fences and there was enough to like about his run at Catterick Bridge last time out, a race which wouldn’t have been a deep enough test of stamina for him, to give him solid each-way claims, and he is now 2lbs lower in the weights.

1.45 Navan – Ferrum (each way)

As regular readers know I love these big field, mid-to-low grade handicap hurdles especially when there is more chaff than wheat set to line up. Over this kind of trip, Lets Do This would probably have won last time out as he only weakened on the run-in, forfeiting five places up the final climb over the 2m6f trip. I suspect, however, that the bookmakers will have taken note and he will be priced up accordingly.

To be fair there aren’t many alternatives despite a field of 16 set to go to post, but the best ‘value’ alternative is most probably the bottom weight Ferrum. The seven-year-old may still be a maiden under rules following some 17 outings (0-8 over hurdles), but he has run some promising races during that time and is now weighted accordingly, off a lowly handicap mark of 75!

A low grade stayer on the flat, he has been racing over three miles over hurdles and there was plenty to like about his fourth of 14 at Fairyhouse last time out and this drop to a stiff two and a half miles might just do the each-way trick.

    2.45 Carlisle – Wavelength

    Several of these staying chasers need plenty of help from the handicapper before they can even be considered for another gold medal and there are fitness questions marks about several others as well. Uptown Harry not surprisingly needed his comeback run following a break of 214 days and if he is at peak fitness he should play a part albeit that he needs to prove he will stay this extended distance.

    Fenland Tiger will make the market for us following a fourth win in five outings on his chasing debut at here off 103 in October. A 4lbs penalty seems very fair in the circumstances and he could well be worth a saver on our selection Wavelength to get your money back.

    I must admit that I am going way left of centre here in order to grab some value, but he looked a very promising sort when winning and finishing second in a pair of Hexham handicap chases in the spring of 2022 before being on the sidelines 552 days. His comeback run last month saw him run well until four out when fitness and sharpness got the better of him. But if he retains the majority of his ability he could surprise back on his last winning mark.

    2.55 Navan – Pour Pavore

    I thought this race was ripe for a big priced winner with none of the market leaders really exciting me and the top weight Pour Pavore could be the one to row in with off what looks a very enticing handicap mark of 109, less the cream on the cake; Kieren Buckley’s 3lbs claim.

    Very lightly raced for a seven-year-old, has only had the 13 races under rules, he was a huge eye catcher at the beginning of 2023 in an extended two mile handicap hurdle run at a good pace when he came from a mile back to finishing a never nearer nine and three quarter lengths fourth of 18 behind Doyen Ta Win.

    His three runs over fences have been moderate to say the very least, his jumping being hugely less than fluent, but I am sure his shrewd handler wouldn’t have kept him over the larger obstacles had he not schooled at least adequately and I am admittedly going to take a big chance in backing him to fence better off this ‘thrown in’ mark.

        Paul Jacobs’ Horse Racing Tips

        12:25 Carlisle – Five Dollar Fine (each way)
        13:45 Navan – Ferrum (each way)
        14:45 Carlisle – Wavelength
        14:55 Navan – Pour Pavore

        *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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