Becher Chase 2023 trends and stats for Aintree 2.05 on Saturday

Does history favour Ashtown Lad?

Ashtown Lad jumps a fence at Aintree in the Becher Chase

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The Becher Chase is one of the most prestigious handicaps before Christmas as the runners and riders tackle the iconic Grand National fences.

A whole host of horses in the field for this year’s renewal boast experience of Aintree’s unique obstacles including last season’s winner Ashtown Lad and Coko Beach, who finished a creditable eighth in the 2022 Grand National.

While the Becher Chase has attracted its joint-smallest field of 14 runners since 2010, it still looks like a tricky betting puzzle to solve so hopefully a leaf through the history books could provide some clues to the identity of the winner.

Becher Chase odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 years and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.

Becher Chase trends

AGE

Seven of the last 10 winners of the Becher Chase were aged eight or nine – Aintree specialist Vieux Lion Rouge (2016 & 2020) and Oscar Time (2014) were the only horses outside the age bracket.

CHASE FORM

A lot of experience over fences appears key as nine of the last 10 winners had at least seven previous runs over fences and the same number had at least two wins over the larger obstacles.

COURSE FORM

You want to look for a horse that has previously run at Aintree as nine winners of the Becher Chase since 2013 met this trend.

DISTANCE FORM

Eight of the last 10 winners had run over 3m or further on at least five previous occasions.

LAST TIME OUT

An emerging trend to note is that the last six winners of the Becher Chase all had just one prep run.

RATING

As the Becher Chase is a handicap, we aren’t exactly dealing with the cream of the National Hunt crop, but nine of the last 10 winners were all rated 135 or higher by the handicapper.

WEIGHT

The presence of 162-rated Coko Beach in the line up means 10 of the 14 runners meet the stat that eight winners since 2013 carried 10st 9lbs or less to victory.

BECHER CHASE TRENDS VERDICT

The historical trends suggest ASHTOWN LAD can retain his crown as last year’s winner ticks all the boxes. The nine-year-old is only 2lbs higher in the handicap from 12 months ago and trainer Dan Skelton has been targeting this race.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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