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An international cast of 15 runners means there are plenty of angles to consider if you’re planning to have a punt on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Continuous flies the flag for Ireland, the Brits are represented by Bay Bridge, Free Wind, Hukum and Westover, Ace Impact spearheads the home charge, Fantastic Moon is the pick of the German horses, while Through Seven Seas has embarked on a lengthy trip from Japan.
A whole host of form lines are on offer so a deep dive into the history books for some extra clues could help before picking your Arc horse.
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 years and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trends
AGE
Despite the Classic generation receiving a weight allowance, three-year-olds have only won three of the last 10 renewals of the Arc. The most common winning age group are four year olds, who have landed half of the renewals since 2013.
COURSE
Eight of the last 10 winners of the Arc had at least one previous outing at Longchamp, with seven of those having already scored at the track. It’s worth noting that Ace Impact has yet to run at the Paris course.
DISTANCE
It is no surprise that as the world’s premier middle-distance race, horses need to have proven their mettle over 12 furlongs. Incredibly, the last 10 winners of the Arc had all won over the distance before heading to Longchamp. Ace Impact has yet to even tackle 1m4f in his career.
LAST TIME OUT
A victory before heading to the Arc is fairly important as seven winners since 2013 were successful last time out.
A further trend is that eight of the last 10 winners had run within 29 days of the big race at Longchamp. Hukum and Westover have not been seen on track since their thrilling battle to the line in the King George at Ascot in July.
ODDS
Just three favourites have returned for Paddy Power punters in the last decade, although six of the last 10 winners could be found in the top three in the market.
SEASON FORM
Any horses that are winless this season can be put on the back burner as nine winners since 2013 had scored on at least one occasion that term before heading to Paris.
You also want to be looking for a runner that has been seen on track three times this year as that was a common thread for eight of the last 10 winners.
STALL
A low draw could prove crucial to selecting your Arc horse as six of the last 10 winners broke from stall eight or lower. Hukum faces a real test after being drawn in stall 14.
VERDICT
A wide-open renewal of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is in store – and the antepost favourite Ace Impact does not fit the profile of a winner based on recent trends. In fact, Continuous and Feed The Flame have more appealing profiles of the three-year-old runners, although the statistics point us in the direction of an older horse that can be found outside of the market principles – BAY BRIDGE, who is set to break from stall 6.
Read More on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
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- What horse is Frankie Dettori set to ride in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe?
- Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe weather forecast, ground conditions and going for Longchamp on Sunday
- How to watch the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2023 on TV and live stream
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