Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ best Sunday bets across the tracks

PJ returns in his relentless quest for winning value.

Paul Jacobs Generic

By / Horse Racing Tips / 10 months ago

PJ’s value plays

Worcester 14:45 – Saxon Queen
Tipperary  15:45 – Clever And Cool
Brighton 16:45 – Royal Bliss
Tipperary 17:30 – Firm Belief

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Worcester 14:45 – SAXON QUEEN

Last season Dreamsundermyfeet ran in slightly better class and it will be interesting to see how well supported she is in the market on her first run for 140 days. If I Say has been less than fluent at her obstacles on each of her four starts over fences, but if she gets the hang of things here she is more than fairly treated on her previous hurdles form and could be the biggest danger to the selection, Saxon Queen.

There is no doubt that the Peter Bowen-trained mare is not straight forward (flashed her tail under pressure on her last two starts at Stratford and Newton Abbot), but at this level she is most definitely a force. I am hoping that the slower tempo of chasing will suit her (makes her fencing debut now) and if she continues on a career upward curve then she could be well handicapped against If I Say and Cresswell Queen. The last named didn’t seem to stay the extended marathon trip at Southwell last time out and is respected back to a bare three miles.

Tipperary  15:45 – CLEVER AND COOL

The dark one in here has to be the Joseph O’Brien trained Statement. Winner of the Group Three US Navy Flag Stakes over course and distance 12 months ago on the back of a Listed win at Cork, she was sent to Australia to try and nab some lucrative prize money at Randwick Park in Sydney. That mission ultimately failed but following a 148-day break it will be interesting to see how she fares in the market compared to stable companions Honey Girl and Miramas.

However, all three entries may have their work cut out to deal with Clever and Cool who connections keep on trying to stretch out to a mile, but ultimately this is by far her best trip as she showed when hosing up in the Listed Platinum Stakes at Cork. You could argue that race fell apart around her, but she galloped on with great relish that day and could be the value to see off Honey Girl. The last named has a penalty to carry for her Circus Maximus success and at least matched that performance with a placed effort in the Minstrel Stakes. She will almost certainly start market leader, but it would need a further step up to defy that penalty here against some useful fillies.

 

Brighton 16:45 – ROYAL BLISS

Despite a relatively small field there is enough pace in the line-up to believe that we will get a well run race. The three-year-old Hitched may leave this class behind in due course but he doesn’t do himself any favours by racing freely in his races and may well be spurred on by the other pace angles here. That could set the race up nicely for Amy Murphy’s runner Royal Bliss who needs a well run race to bring her into the equation late on as she showed when second of five over a mile here last time out.

Third of 10 behind Moguk Valley at Kempton in March over six furlongs tells us she has the requisite pace for this drop in trip and 10lbs lower in the weights here it is surely just a matter of time before she finally loses that maiden tag on what will be her 11th career start.

Tipperary 17:30 – FIRM BELIEF

A 1m 4f handicap for horses rated 47-70 with 18 runners is hardly the perfect getting out race, but there are several angles here in a race where over half can readily be dismissed. Kings Prince is of obvious interest on the back of his second at Leopardstown over 2m. That big step up in trip seemed to suit the son of Kingman really well and as a five-year-old with very few miles on the clock he should play a leading role here.

Dundalk winner French Company along with Rain should also make their marks, but my big outside pick Firm Belief could be ready to take a step forward here as she indeed must do to be involved. However, there have been signs that a mark under 60 could be workable. The eye-catching run came last time out when the mare was tenderly ridden over 2m to finish a never nearer ninth of 14 at Leopardstown, yet only beaten four and three quarter lengths. Dropped a full 3lbs for that run (was the assessor actually watching?), a fast-run race over this 1m 4f trip could pay dividends at a huge price.

Sunday’s racing tips

Worcester 14:45 – Saxon Queen
Tipperary  15:45 – Clever And Cool
Brighton 16:45 – Royal Bliss
Tipperary 17:30 – Firm Belief

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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