Horse Racing Tips: Paddy’s Epic Saturday Cheat Sheet for ITV Racing

El Drama bumped into Al Aasy on a going day at Haydock and that was a big step in the right direction on his first try for the new team. He backs up here over the intermediate distance of 9 furlongs and he can outstay Nostrum.

Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore teaming up with Juddmonte for this. Punters latch on to good trainer/rider combinations and when these two team up there is a certain level of confidence. A son of Kingman, Nostrum won nicely at Newmarket. He then seemed to get bogged down at Goodwood. He will be much happier on this faster surface and take him to win.

There’s a very good chance we didn’t see the real NOSTRUM at Glorious Goodwood and I have no problem at all giving him another chance here.

NOSTRUM was undeniably disappointing at Goodwood but with the likelihood of quicker conditions here he is given another chance to build on his impressive Newmarket return. El Drama made an excellent start for his new yard at Haydock a fortnight ago and rates the chief threat.

I’ll forgive Nostrum for his second behind Epictetus at Goodwood earlier this month. It was soft ground that day and the better ground should help his cause. 

Carla’s Way made a big impression on her racecourse debut winning with any amount in hand, and was then punted accordingly in the Albany at the Royal meeting where she was far too keen and didn’t give her running. Subsequently, she has had the wind operation and now returns off a two month break.

SHUWARI is really putting Ollie Sangster on the map and is unbeaten in two starts. Her second start was in Listed company at Sandown and she did well to see off the talented pair of Fallen Angel and Soprano. Appears to go on any ground and is an exciting daughter of New Bay.

PRETTY CRYSTAL fared best of these in the Princess Margaret at Ascot and can go well, as can easy Thirsk-winner Darnation.

No strong opinion on this contest and I’m not going to start guessing.

True Legend has been a typical improver for the team gently going through the grades and managing to defy the handicapper in the process. He now takes another rap over the knuckles after an unlucky second at Goodwood and the more galloping nature of the track here over this trip will suit is grinding style.

The form of Davideo’s win last time at Newmarket has been boosted several times with the second and third both winning next time out. This son of Galileo got a 7lb rise which is far from ideal but with the assistance of Frankie Dettori he will be popular and has to be a player in this contest. I’m going with him.

I’ll chance VAGUELY ROYAL for the Stradivarius team of owner Bjorn Nielsen and trainers John and Thady Gosden. The son of Galileo has been a relatively short price in all four starts and landed odds of 4/7 in a maiden at Doncaster last time. That took his rating from 85 to 87 so it wasn’t an incredible performance, but he promises to be much better stepping up to this trip.

Hard not to be positive about the majority in a typically competitive renewal of this feature 3-y-o handicap with the narrow vote in favour of ALHAMBRA PALACE. He’s impressed in landing each of his last 2 starts, latterly at this trip, and he can make a bold bid from the foot of the weights for the stable that has landed this race in 2 of the last 4 seasons. 

Denmark has only had one start this year and Aidan O’Brien has stuck blinkers on him, which could bring out improvement. 

Knight was thought to be the yard’s 2000 Guineas contender, but his return effort at Newbury was very poor so they shelved those ideas and gave him a break. He nearly overcame that absence when returning at Goodwood, and with that outing under his belt he can take a significant step forward.

GALERON will be a big price and is held by Epictetus on Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes form. That said, I’m happy to play him each-way for Charlie Hills and Tom Queally. This is a big chance for the latter who hasn’t been on many high class horses in recent years, and his style might be perfect for Galeron.

ALDAARY hasn’t been at his very smart best so far this term but a tactical affair in testing ground in the Sussex Stakes last time wasn’t ideal and, down in grade, he’s worth a chance to show he retains all of his ability. Thoroughbred Stakes winner Epictetus is an obvious danger and there’s a case to be made for Charyn.

I’m with Charyn for Roger Varian. He’s down in grade to a Group 2 and he should be more than good enough to win as he’s been consistent in Group 1’s this season. 

Although he has winning form over a variety of distances, I really do believe that the long sprint 7 furlongs is absolutely ideal for Mutasaabeq. Added to that he gets the services of Ryan Moore this afternoon, which will enhance his front running tactics significantly. He’s been overlooked in the market and looks a big each-way player.

It could be a good day for Frankie on what could be his last on the Knavesmire. Kinross was the winner of this race last year. He won nicely at Goodwood in the Lennox stakes – that was soft ground – but he is proven on a quicker surface having run very well on firm in the Breeders Cup, but also winning this on fast ground last year. Keep an eye on the market for Mutasaabeq as he was fancied for the Lockinge at the beginning of the season and hasn’t run much since.

I’m all over SACRED for William Haggas and Tom Marquand who have had a good week. The daughter of Exceed and Excel has always had plenty of talent and once ran in the 1000 Guineas behind Mother Earth. As it happens, seven furlongs on fast ground is her ideal trip.

The very likeable KINROSS resumed winning ways in the Lennox earlier this month under Frankie Dettori and can take this prize for the second year running. Sacred failed by only a neck in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee at Royal Ascot and is the big danger back over 7f. 

I took Isaac Shelby to beat Kinross last time out at Goodwood based on the prices and I’m going to do the same again. He only lost by a neck on the soft ground and it’s worth siding with him at an each-way price again. 

This is Taskhan’s  first return into handicap company since 2021 and that will help him along with the return to a track that he has some really strong form. He has chased home Hamish and Stradivarius around here, though he sometimes doesn’t get the pace he needs to run at. He should get a rocket gallop today that will see him fly home.

Ryan Moore will have to be at his best on Real Dream here. He just races a little lazily but ran very well behind Scampi at the track in May. He won very nicely at Ascot recently and this trip looks perfect for him. He is a typical ‘Sir Michael Stoute improver with age’. Sweet William is talented – of that there is no doubt. He has had surgery to put some screws in a small fracture last year so any rain would be welcome for him. I think he is the horse they all have to beat but if the ground gets quick, I would worry about him being as well in as he is on soft ground.

A fast gallop at this trip will be ideal for TASHKHAN‘s closing style and he’s a massive price for a horse with his ability.

The 1¾m handicap at Glorious Goodwood could be the key piece of form here, with the very progressive SWEET WILLIAM taken to confirm his superiority over Adjuvant despite 4 lb worse terms. Jackfinbar, the better drawn of the Willie Mullins pair, and the very consistent HMS President complete the shortlist.

Willie Mullins has Absurde and  Jackfinbar in the feature race and I’m siding with the latter. William Buick will ride and York should suit him. 

Ehraz (each-way) has always been highly regarded by connections and probably hasn’t achieved what they thought capable so far. He’s another dropping out of higher company and although lumping a big weight he’s going to appreciate the slight ease in grade. This rates a great chance for an overdue return to the winners circle.

Joseph Parr is having a fantastic season and The Green Man (each-way) has been a flag bearer winning at this track and running very well. He stayed on well at the finish last time out and it could be a case of if he gets the luck in running. He is drawn very high, which may not be ideal, but that part of the track has not been raced on much at this meeting.

I like the fact that FRESH stays a bit further. Some of his best form is with juice in the ground but he won the International at Ascot on a fast surface so he seems to go on anything.

SUMMERGHAND signalled he is ready to go in again when just failing to get up in the Great St Wilfrid a week ago and can follow up his success here 12 months ago with his usual visor now refitted having been left off at Ripon. 

Tactical (each-way) is having his second run after a wind operation and can show improvement past his mark of 96 after his comeback run.