Rory Delargy’s Horse Racing Tips
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Ian Williams and Alice Stevens teamed up to win this race last year with Zealandia, and he was among the six-day entries for the latest renewal. It’s intriguing, given that, that Williams prefers to go to war with Dream Harder who went into the notebook when staying on to be beaten less than a length in a 1m2½f handicap at Chester last time despite being poorly drawn and forced to come from well back in the field as a result.
I also noted on watching the replay that he briefly lost his footing behind on the turn towards the straight, which cost him a little momentum, and he should go down as an unlucky loser.
DREAM HARDER should be suited by the slightly longer trip here, and with the pace likely to be unrelenting, he should also get the run of things if patient tactics are employed again.
The concern on paper is the quicker ground, but while his best form to date on turf has come with plenty of give, he’s only raced on good to firm once, and shaped well after a slow start at Windsor last October, running to form despite not having the race run to suit. In short, conditions don’t worry me unless it gets very firm, and he looks poised to strike from the same mark as at Chester.
14.15 – Sandown – Bodorgan
The early prices didn’t last about the promising BODORGAN in this mile handicap, and that is hardly surprising for a horse who finished ahead of Lingfield Derby Trial winner Military Order on just his second start as a juvenile.
Indeed, all of the horses who finished around him in that Newmarket maiden are rated higher than him now, while Bodorgan has done nothing wrong since, winning a 7f novice there by a wide margin on his next start.
He then caught the eye on his seasonal/handicap debut in the Silver Bowl at Haydock, where he was trapped wide before making stealthy late headway under no more than a hand ride from Hollie Doyle.
Bodorgan remains thoroughly unexposed, and showed he stayed a mile on his first attempt at Haydock. He will be sharper for that run, and appeals as the sort to take higher order this summer, so he must be backed getting weight from all of his rivals here.
14.35 – York – Snash
On the face of it, it’s hard to give SNASH much of a chance here, with his course record reading 0,0,0,7,4, and his record over 7f a none-too-convincing 7,0,7,0,6,4,0, and that’s before considering a trio of below-par runs this year.
On digging deeper, however, there is a fair bit to like about a few of those runs, and he has regularly hinted that a fast-run 7f on a flat track ought to be ideal. He tends to do his best running late over 6f, and can get outpaced over that trip, and many of his runs over further have come off much higher marks (and one came in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes as a juvenile).
His latest run over same course and distance (C&D) saw him running on for fourth behind Saleymm last July in a better-class handicap than this, and all those around him that day have won races since, including big Ascot handicap winners Shelir and Escobar, who were both behind him that day.
Snash also lines up here off a 6lb lower mark than for that York effort, despite winning on either side of it, and it’s worth noting that his wins came on the back of a series of down-the-field runs, which is very much the pattern with Tim Easterby’s handicappers, who tend to run themselves into form gradually.
14.50 – Sandown – Perdika
Great State is the one to beat in the Scurry, but I cannot agree with those who think he’s well drawn in stall two. For me, that’s a poor draw for a hold-up sprinter, and leaves him reliant on luck in getting a clean run through next to the rails, or sacrificing ground to try to circle the field, neither of which makes me want to back him at 7/4 and shorter.
PERDIKA has little to find with the favourite on form, and is thriving on racing this year, with a pair of Listed wins in France.
She was also an excellent second in the Prix de Saint-Georges at Longchamp in between those wins, and will be suited by the stiff 5f here.
She has a wide draw, but the speed is in the middle, and I think those with early dash will move to the rail, giving Perdika plenty of space to operate in, and she should get first run on Great State as a result.
15.05 – York – Israr
Quickthorn is the one to beat on his runaway win in the Lonsdale Cup here last season, but that effort was something of a freak, and the balance of his form suggests he will do well to contain ISRAR here.
The latter has stamina to prove at 1¾m, but this is unlikely to develop into a test of stamina and he hits the line hard over 1½m, which suggests that he’s no short runner in any case. His latest second, beaten a short head, by Haskoy in the Aston Park Stakes at Newbury is the best recent form on offer, and ought to be good enough to win.
15.40 – York – Safari Dream
It’s hard to rule too many out here with the effect of the draw something of an unknown, with York biases varying meeting to meeting, and usually pace related. SAFARI DREAM is a horse I had a lot of time for as a juvenile, being quite a bullish sort I thought would progress well this term.
Although he’s yet to improve on those efforts per se, he has caught the eye when placed at both Goodwood and Leicester, and the fitting of cheekpieces should help after he arguably idled his chance away last time, drifting right having shown bright speed throughout.
Rory Delargy’s ITV Racing Tips
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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