Horse Racing Tips: Rory Delargy’s sweet selections for Derby Day at Epsom

Rory likes Military Order in the Derby at 13:30.

Rory Delargy’s Horse Racing Tips

12:50 – Maries Diamond
13:30 – Military Order
14:10 – Prosperous Voyage
14:45 – Tatterstall
15:20 – Ancient Times
15:55 – Balance of Play
16:30 – Scampi
17:05 – Probe

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

12:50 – Maries Diamond

MARIES DIAMOND clearly has his work cut out in the Diomed as the lowest rated runner, but all of his opponents have questions hanging over them, and it’s possible that Hollie Doyle will be able to ride her rivals to sleep from the front on a horse who will relish the likely fast ground. 

Marie’s Diamond – an inveterate front runner – was back to form when making most in a red-hot handicap at York’s Dante meeting, only to be caught in the shadow of the post by the unexposed Marhaba The Champ. 

He has a mixed record at this meeting, with two unplaced efforts coming on unsuitably soft ground, while he showed he handled the track well when third in the Surrey Stakes here as a 3-y-o.

13:30 – Military Order

The Derby is not an easy betting race, and I have more negatives than positives, as a race where the favourite was down the field in the Guineas might suggest. I think Passenger is the best prospect in the field, but his lack of experience is a definite worry, while I could only be tempted to back MILITARY ORDER – who has the best blend of class and experience – if there were positive signs from his stable on the first day. It’s him or nothing at this stage, after my original fancy Alder was not declared.

14:10 – Prosperous Voyage

With 2022 runner-up Potapova suffering an irregular heartbeat on her return, and not proven on quick going, this looks best left to the classy PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, who would have found a stiff 1m1f on soft ground too much for her in the Dahlia Stakes. She is better judged on her efforts in the 1000 Guineas and Falmouth Stakes last term, and is the clear choice on both those efforts. I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t boss matters from the off.

    14:45 – Tatterstall

    The key to solving the inaugural running of the 3-y-o Dash is might lie in the York handicap a couple of weeks ago where JM Jungle finished second and Tatterstall not beaten far in seventh after trying to make all. 

    JM Jungle fared best of those that raced up with the pace at York, beaten just half a length by one ridden from much further back. He’s arguably the one to beat at a track which favours raw speed, but at bigger prices, I’d just favour TATTERSTALL.

    Tatterstall raced front rank throughout at York, weakening only in the last half furlong as he finished a close seventh; he’s 3lb lower here given he was running under a mandatory penalty on the Knavesmire, so is 7lb better off with JM Jungle, and with a positive draw and at a track which suits his main attribute, he looks the value.

    15:20 – Ancient Times

    Two against the field in the dash, with both Sampers Seven and Ancient Times looking ideal types for this singular contest, and whichever of the pair wins the battle for early supremacy ought to be hard to peg back.

    Sampers Seven has blazing early speed (much like Caspian Prince, who Mick Appleby trained to win this race in both 2106 and 2017). She improved on her reappearance when a good third at Thirsk last time, again having all her rivals off the bridle at halfway, and she can only benefit from this extra-sharp five furlongs. Greg Cheyne, who has made a good impression since coming to these shores, is a positive jockey booking. 

    ANCIENT TIMES is only just preferred. A winner over 6f here in the past, he has developed more speed as he has matured, as many true sprinters tend to do, and now looks best at a bare five furlongs. He shaped well on his reappearance at Newmarket, finishing a close fourth after showing typical early dash in conditions which blunted his speed, and he should come on for that outing. This will be the first time he’ll be ridden by the excellent Kaiya Fraser, and that rider is tremendous value for his 7lb claim. With the handicapper kind enough to drop him 1lb for Newmarket, he’s effectively 8lb lower here, and will think he’s running loose.

    15:55 – Balance of Play

    It’s never easy playing in 3-y-o only handicaps before the middle of June, with so many well-bred and unexposed sorts to consider, but at least we know that Balance of Play is well treated, and Ralph Beckett’s son of Lope de Vega looks the one to be with assuming he copes with the quicker ground.

    BALANCE OF PLAY shaped well when fourth to Laafi at Nottingham on debut, conceding experience to the trio who beat him on heavy ground, and the winner was far from disgraced in the Lingfield Derby Trial on his comeback. A similar run followed behind Dragon Icon (sent off at 3/1 for the German 2000 Guineas on his most recent start), but it was his excellent second at Salisbury last month which suggested that he would be winning handicaps. At level weights, he split subsequent winners in Quddwah and Greek Order in a close finish at Salisbury, and that pair are now rated 95 and 85, making the assessor’s initial swing at 81 for Balance of Play look very lenient.

      16:30 – Scampi 

      SCAMPI is easy to make a case for in the Northern Dancer Handicap. A progressive 4-y-o, he’s best at 1½m on a sound surface, and his last three runs in those conditions have seen him record three wins, the latest in the ultra-competitive Jorvik Handicap at York last month. He will need to improve further to defy another rise in the weights, but that appears very much what he’s doing, and it would be folly to oppose him lightly arriving here, as he does, at the very top of his game.

      A case can be made for Haliphon at a bigger price, too, as he was only just beaten in this race last year, and recent below-par efforts have come under sub-optimal conditions. His trainer has an excellent record with his handicappers at this fixture, with three winners and a further six places from 18 runners in the last five years. 

      Beaten just a nose from a 4lb lower mark in 2022, he went on to win his next two, with his most recent success coming under today’s rider off 1lb higher at Chester last summer. Two runs in the mud this spring are easily ignored, and I’d imagine that he’s once again been laid out for a touch in this contest.

      17:05 – Probe 

      PROBE has improved markedly for the drop to sprinting since joining Jennie Candlish from Dermot Weld, and he should be unbeaten for new connections, having gone for home too soon on his penultimate start. He had plenty in hand on a return to Newmarket last time, and has plenty more to offer this year, giving the impression he could easily graduate to Group races before long. If he handles the track then he’s the one they have to beat again. 

      Mr Wagyu is an obvious alternative, having taken this race last year. He ran his best race this term when finishing on the heels of the placed horses at York last time, and he’s always been at his best in high summer, so is sure to have thrived with the sun on his back in recent weeks. It really is worth repeating how potent he is in handicaps at this time of year, with his lifetime record in June/July reading 211611313146316311119123211410 – that’s 15 wins from 30 starts, often in the most competitive handicaps in the calendar.

      Rory Delargy’s Horse Racing Tips

      12:50 – Maries Diamond
      13:30 – Military Order
      14:10 – Prosperous Voyage
      14:45 – Tatterstall
      15:20 – Ancient Times
      15:55 – Balance of Play
      16:30 – Scampi
      17:05 – Probe

      *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

      READ MORE

        THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW