Horse Racing Tips: Paddy’s Ultimate Cheat Sheet for Epsom Derby day

I’ve landed on IMPERIAL FIGHTER for Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding. He was second in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last year behind Native Trail so I’m taking a chance at a big price.

There are question marks about most of the five other runners and KOLSAI could still be improving. He also gets a very handy 12lb weight-for-age allowance.

HIGHLAND AVENUE put up an excellent third on his return 27 days ago in a top level field and the form has been strongly advertised since.

REGAL REALITY has the chance to re-live former glories here and on his best form my hope would lap this lot. 

KOLSAI is the least exposed in this field and, based on his positive return in the Fielden Stakes, he’s worth another chance to improve

Auguste Rodin was disappointing in the Guineas so I’m taking him on with SPREWELL. I was really impressed with him in the Leopardstown Derby trial, he came home really well. It would be a fairytale story for Jessica Harrington to train the Derby winner. 

Irish challenger WHITE BIRCH (each-way) was very slow away from the stalls at York in the 1m 2f Dante Stakes yet still pressed the winner, The Foxes, all the way to the line. This test could suit him better over the 1m 4f trip.

Despite his 2,000 Guineas flop AUGUSTE RODIN now steps up in trip to 1m4f and could prove the stand-out performer as the others appear to be on top of each other from a form angle point of view.

I’m backing two against the field in MILITARY ORDER and DUBAI MILE. Miliatary Order was a ready winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial (although it was run on the all-weather this year) while Dubai Mile has solid form and ny rain will help his chances. 

MILITARY ORDER’s win at Lingfield was the most convincing of all the trials, so this brother to 2021 Derby winner Adayar has plenty going for him with his stamina guaranteed. Passenger and Arrest are high on the short-list. 

I’m not a massive Potapova fan so will look to PROSPEROUS VOYAGE for Frankie Dettori and Ralph Beckett to get the job done. 

Only six runners are declared and this Group 3 contest looks the perfect fit for the four-year-old filly PROSPEROUS VOYAGE to give Frankie Dettori at least one Derby day winner. 

Switching back to a faster surface can see PROSPEROUS VOYAGE step back into the winner’s enclosure and regain some of that excellent three-year-old form she had in the locker.

Big chance for PROSPEROUS VOYAGE here for Frankel Dettori and Ralph Beckett. The former 1,000 Guineas runner-up went on to land a Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket and has always been a classy act.

PROSPEROUS VOYAGE is the class act in this field and is best excused a lesser effort on soft ground at Newmarket on return, so she gets the nod ahead of Potapova.

This is far too hard a race to work out so I’ll let it slide.

The 5f ‘Daash’ is over in the blink of an eye but JM JUNGLE has options from a stall 9 draw. He’s consistent and ran a really good race at York last time when runner-up to Kuwait City.

RUSSET GOLD was unable to give away lumps of weight to Betweenthesticks on softer ground at York but is better off with that rival now at the weights. The excellent claimer Harry Davies takes off another 3lb too. 

BETWEENTHESTICKS went up 4lb for a defeat last time which seems harsh but is worth a few quid each-way here. I like the fact he has decent form at speed favouring tracks like York and Salisbury.

CAN TO CAN could hardly have been any more impressive when bolting up in first-time blinkers at Newcastle 25 days ago. Miss Brazen looks a shrewd acquisition for the Easterby team and she promises to figure, along with Jm Jungle.

This contest isn’t much easier so I’ll take two against the field in ANGLE LAND and VINTAGE CLARETS.

CLARENDON HOUSE lost a shoe at York when finishing fifth on his seasonal debut. That was a very good run considering and the quicker ground shouldn’t be a problem.

LIVE IN THE MOMENT ran an absolute cracker in this contest last season off a mark of 90 and has been gifted a good draw against the stand side rail this time. 

MOKAATIL is nicely handicapped off 85 for Ian Williams and has an each-way chance under Sean Bowen who takes off 7lbs. Finished a fine fourth in this contest last season and is a previous course winner.

CLARENDON HOUSE getting the nod having impressed with how he went through the contest before fading into fifth at York on reappearance recently. Ancient Times looks the main danger. 

LOSE YOUR WAD drops in grade to a handicap and he won well at Kempton in April. He finished fourth at Chester in May and he could be ahead of his mark. 

FORCA TIMAO (each-way) was not beaten far in the London Gold Cup at Newbury which throws up so many winners throughout the season. We just need him to hit the frame at a nice-price for now. 

Watch how Artistic Star gets on in the Epsom Derby (1.30) as that will be a pointer to the chance of TORITO off a mark of just 95. The Gosden runner is open to more improvement. 

LOSE YOUR WAD had no chance against San Antonio at Chester last time but is much more interesting here off a mark of 93 now running in a handicap. 

FOX JOURNEY won in the style of a colt going places at Newmarket and is selected to make light of a 9lb rise. Trainer Andrew Balding has won this 3 times since 2017 so his course-scorer Kadovar has to enter the reckoning under William Buick. 

Ryan Moore rides CAIUS CHORISTER who has form on better ground and his style of running could see him go well from stall three. 

SCAMPI bolted up in a competitive handicap at York last time, loves to hear his hooves rattle and as a previous course and distance winner last July ticks a lot of boxes. 

SCAMPI travelled so well for an easy win at York last time that he can follow that up now as a 6lb hike in the weights doesn’t look harsh. 

SHEER ROCKS can follow up a recent Ascot success for Eve Johnson Houghton under the crack apprentice Harry Davies who takes off 3lb. 

CAIUS CHORISTER produced a very promising comeback effort when runner-up here (10f) in April and is a previous dual course and distance winner also. 

HAYMAKER won on his last start on quick ground at Windsor in May. The way he got home that day made me think he’ll enjoy this.

The joint top-weight APOLLO ONE may be the answer to a tricky handicap. He’s drawn in stall 14 and Richard Kingscote won on him on his final start last season at Kempton and is reunited with him now. 

We get the ‘pocket rocket’ Hollie Doyle taking over in the saddle on BADRI now, who can track the pace and pounce late after a promising run at York despite being isolated in the middle of the track. 

MR WAGYU is 2lb higher than when taking this prize last year but he might well pull off the double. He’s dropped 5lbs in the ratings this season and I suspect it will have been targeted for him. 

A competitive event with the vote going to MR WAGYU, who seems to be coming to the boil just in time to repeat last year’s win.