Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays across the tracks today

PJ's back to help us see out the weekend in style.

Paul Jacobs byline new

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday racing tips

15.07 – Listowel – Away To Sea
15:30 – Fakenham – Go Fox
15:45 – Nottingham – Greatgadian
16:15 – Nottingham – Lucidity

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

15.07 – Listowel – Away To Sea

This is arguably the most competitive race of the day and several of the 15 runners have been threatening to win for some time including that grand old campaigner, The Jam Man, who ran much better than his finishing position suggested last time out. Global Expert, Zileo and recent Gowran Park winner All In Peder all have solid claims and I wouldn’t put you off any of them, but I think my selection is the ‘value play’ in this staying contest.

The six-year-old, AWAY TO SEA, ran as if he needed his first run for 110 days last time out when very free in the first half of the race before being out speeded in the closing stages by two fitter rivals inside the final furlong and three quarters. Still a maiden after 15 starts, but placed regularly off marks in the high 70’s, he is bound to be a whole lot fitter here and after being a page boy on five occasions he can promote himself to groom status here by defying top weight.

15:30 – Fakenham – Go Fox

Sometimes you look at a profile of a racehorse and you cannot understand the way that they have been campaigned. This chestnut gelding has been on my radar for a long time, but I have been waiting and waiting for GO FOX to drop back to the minimum trip on decent ground. His last six starts have been over two and a half miles and more over hurdles and fences and to my eyes he simply doesn’t get home over an extended trip.

Those runs have seen her mark fall from 107 and now she now runs off a mark of 81 and with all the above factors finally in her favour, this looks like a race playing in against some exposed rivals. Probably the best of his seven rivals is Arbennig who was going to be my original selection, but I was just a wee bit worried about the way he jumped in the opening exchanges last time out at Southwell.

15:45 – Nottingham – Greatgadian

Although only eight will go to post for this extended mile, class two handicap; the big race on the card, I think that we are guaranteed a fast run race here with likely front runner Point Lynas and the free wheeling, all-weather winner Al Agaila set to hit the sharp end from the start. The former remains unexposed and despite a career high mark here of 95, he showed that his turn was close at hand when a fine closing head second to Croupier at York after being plenty keen enough through the first quarter mile.

However, those two could well set this up for GREATGADIAN who has finally been given a real chance by the handicapper off a mark of 96. Not disgraced at Listed and Group level, a recent sixth in the Lincoln was a fine effort on ground that was a bit tacky for him, last three wins on the all-weather and good to firm ground.

16:15 – Notttingham – Lucidity

Going right down to a class six level, this looks a very winnable 46-60 rated event and as such I think that the top weight is very interesting starting his handicap career off a mark of just 62. Two wins to date for LUCIDITY have yielded absolutely nothing, being beaten an accumulative total of 26 lengths, but two of those runs were on pretty soft ground and be forgiven and he wasn’t given a hard time in the closing stages.

So for me the two big factors here are the extra yardage and his first run on a sound surface and I would think that this is merely a starting point for this son of Zoffany. Of his rivals, Profitar Rules has solid form at this level and gets a bucket load of weight from the selection.

Sunday racing tips

15.07 – Listowel – Away To Sea
15:30 – Fakenham – Go Fox
15:45 – Nottingham – Greatgadian
16:15 – Nottingham – Lucidity

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

READ MORE

    THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW