Derby tips: Key trends and stats for Epsom 1.30 on Saturday

The history books throw up some clues...

Military Order wins the Lingfield Derby Trial


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The Epsom Derby is the Blue Riband event on the Flat racing calendar in Britain – and Saturday’s race looks like a wide-open affair.

Key trials failed to throw up a standout contender so a bumper field of 14 runners are set to take their chance in the stallion-making Group 1 that is scheduled to start at the earlier time of 13:30 on Saturday.

Our fearless leader has tasked us with leafing through the history books to pick out key trends and statistics of previous winners to hopefully help point you towards the first past the post in this year’s renewal.

The latest Derby odds are on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends for the Epsom Classic can be found below.

Days Off

Amo Racing runner King Of Steel can be scrubbed from the list as 10 of the last 12 winners of the Derby ran in the last 35 days or less.


Some form between 10 to 12 furlongs is required as nine of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run over the trip, while seven of those had got on the scoreboard.

Ballydoyle’s leading contender Auguste Rodin has never run beyond eight furlongs.


You want to look for a horse that is high in the draw as 10 of the last 12 winners started in Stall 7 or higher.

Last Time Out

A worry for Auguste Rodin and Dubai Mile backers is that the last 12 winners of the Derby were placed on their previous run.

If you dig deeper into the statistics then eight of those were first past the post last time out.


A potentially key trend because this year’s renewal looks wide open is that just four of the last 12 winners of the Derby went off favourite or joint-favourite. In fact, five of the 12 winners could be found outside the top three in the betting.


A high mark appears to be key as 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 109 or higher which means Adelaide River, Artistic Star, Dear My Friend, King Of Steel, San Antonio and Waipiro have a bit to find.


Sprewell, The Foxes and White Birch have all been lumbered with a low position in the draw which leaves Arrest and Military Order as the runners that hit the key trends.

While Charlie Appleby’s yard is hardly in flying form of late, the fact Military Order is a full brother to 2021 winner Adayar suggests he has the pedrigree to cope with the demands of the undulating track at Epsom.

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