Horse Racing Tips: Paddy’s ultimate Cheat Sheet for Epsom Oaks day on Friday

Paddy's five pundits zip through the ITV Races to hopefully bag you a few winners.

Epsom Oaks Pundits Picks

The second Fillies’ Classics comes under orders on Friday with the Epsom Oaks (4.30pm) taking centre stage.

If you’re looking for a none-too-subtle hint of where the winner will come from, we can tell you that nine of the last 10 Epsom Oaks winners have gone to a trainer called either O’Brien (6) or Gosden (3).

Not bad!

But that’s ancient history once the stall fly open even if the pair saddle five of the 11 runners between them on Friday, including the big three in the market, Savethelastdance, Soul Sister and Running Lion. 

The form and the betting suggests the apple mightn’t fall too far from the tree again but there’s no need for you to take our word for it – especially if you’re the suspicious type.

Because ahead of Oaks and Derby day, we’ve assembled top pundits Ruby Walsh, Mick FitzgeraldMatt Chapman, Jason Weaver and Timeform for the two-day fiesta on Epsom Downs.

All you have to do is scroll down for their expertise, insight and general pin-pickery in our famed Paddy Power Cheat Sheet.

Could you honestly ask for anything more?

Ruby Walsh

Mick Fitzgerald

Jason Weaver

Matt Chapman

Timeform

Ruby Walsh

Bobsleigh has a chance and I’d give Valour and Swagger a squeak having run really well at Ascot despite finishing runner up. The step up to 6f should suit and he looks solid.

Mick Fitzgerald

HAATEM winning would be the ideal way to kick off this meeting. He won very easily at Bath and having been an eye-catcher at Goodwood on his first run.

Jason Weaver

VALOUR AND SWAGGER bolted up on his racecourse debut at Windsor but should have been ridden differently at Ascot when beaten. This longer trip will help.

Matt Chapman

HAATEM should be bang in the mix for Richard Hannon and Pat Dobbs. What I like about this colt is he’s coped with Goodwood, having been a good third there on debut before scoring at Bath at long odds on.

Timeform

HAATEM just gets the vote ahead of stable-mate The Camden Colt, for trainer Richard Hannon who has an excellent record in this contest. Valour And Swagger has the form in the book, and he will be suited by this extra 1f, so is another for the shortlist.

Ruby Walsh

There seem to be plenty of money for Dutch Decoy who came home really well at Hamilton last time despite being drawn on the wrong side. He’s a much better draw this time and stall three and the 1m trip on this ground will play to his strengths. He’s the nap on Friday. 

Mick Fitzgerald

REVICH is a former course winner which is all important around Epsom’s undulations. The 6lb rise in the weights after his win last time at Chester complicates matters a little but the seven-year-old is versatile ground wise and tactics wise.

Jason Weaver

An unlucky third here 12 months ago year of a mark of 98 it looks like today is the target for FANTASTIC FOX again. He’s 5lb less to carry & Oisin Murphy is booked.

Matt Chapman

I’ll chance DUTCH DECOY each-way from a decent draw in stall 3. My hope goes for Charlie Johnston and Neil Callan takes the ride. A mark of 87 seems fine.

Timeform

It could just pay to side with ALL THE KINGS MEN. He ran another solid race when third at Thirsk 13 days ago and is unexposed at this trip in first-time blinkers. Course-winner Rhoscolyn is lurking on a handy mark and is worth a look too. 

Ruby Walsh

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tunnes wins as he’s kept good company all his career. He was unbeaten until below par in the Japan Cup but there were excuses for that run. The German challenger is considerably bigger in the market than Westover who usually needs everything to fall right for him to win. It’s the toss of a coin for me and I’d prefer to be on the one who is the bigger price.

Mick Fitzgerald

If TUNNES gets loose on the front end he may not be caught. The British handicapper rates the German challenger just 1lb behind Westover so he may be the value play at the prices.

Jason Weaver

The only time POINT LONSDALE hasn’t been in the money was in the 2,000 Guineas behind Coroebus as a three-year-old. Steps up to 1m 4f which should prove ideal and is on the right path.

Matt Chapman

I suspect HURRICANE LANE might go off in front after he was kicked on a long way out at Newmarket last time and seemed to enjoy it all. William Buick rides and hopefully he handles the quicker ground.

Timeform

EMILY UPJOHN looked a top-class filly in the making when a very unfortunate Oaks second over course and distance last summer. She can make the most of her 3 lb sex allowance. 

Ruby Walsh

If you go back 12 months, you’d have seen Masekela running an excellent race to finish fourth to Desert Crown in the Epsom Derby. He hasn’t really built on that effort despite running well in Graded contests and started this season running down the field in a handicap off 102 at York. There could be more to come from Masekela in handicap company this season.

Mick Fitzgerald

MAJESTIC was a little unlucky at York when trying to come from the back of the pack after a tawdry start. Ground conditions are fine and he is still reasonably handicapped considering he won the Cambridgeshire last September.

Jason Weaver

You can upgrade the York run of MAJESTIC as he broke slowly and was forced to race in the centre of the track. He’s tough and consistent and conditions will suit.

Matt Chapman

MASEKELA has been desperate recently and looked nothing like the horse who this time last year finished fourth behind Desert Crown in the Derby. He’s clearly well handicapped off a mark of 99 for Andrew Balding and this track might spark a revival. Worth a few quid each-way despite an awful effort at York last time.

Timeform

TOSHIZOU is still unexposed at 10 furlongs and could well represent a spot of value from his easing mark. Hollie Doyle rides. 

Ruby Walsh

Savethelastdance finished fifth on debut at Thurles last season but has taken her form to a different level this term – particularly with the visually stunning 22-length romp at Chester.  Previously she beat Boogie Woogie in Ireland and that maiden form has been franked since a couple of times. She can out-stay the Gosden challengers. 

Mick Fitzgerald

SAVETHELASTDANCE was really impressive in the Cheshire Oaks when running out a stunning 22 length winner. She is proven at the 1m 4f trip in this Fillies’ Classic and that will count for plenty and should handle the ground and track.

Jason Weaver

SAVETHELASTDANCE destroyed her rivals at Chester in a whopping 22 length success. The ground will be a lot different now but she should cope with quicker conditions. An each-way alternative could be Heartache Tonight who hs decent form in France and the step up to 1m 4f should suit.

Matt Chapman

I really do think SAVETHELASTDANCE will hack up for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. She looked a monster in the Cheshire Oaks last time  and while the ground will be very different the daughter of Galileo is not bred for mud. She can out-class the field.

Timeform

SAVETHELASTDANCE taken to show she’s as effective on a quicker surface and see off Soul Sister and Running Lion, who were also impressive winners of their trials last month.

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