Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ weekend value plays at HQ

Top tipster Paul Jacobs on four who may score this weekend at Newmarket.

Paul Jacobs Generic

Paul Jacobs’ weekend value plays

Saturday Newmarket 14:15 – Fast Response
Saturday Newmarket 14:50 – Raatea (each-way)

Sunday Newmarket 13:50- Adjuvant
Sunday Newmarket 15:40- Powerdress (each-way)

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Saturday – Newmarket 14:15 – FAST RESPONSE

The the top-six rated Fillies are separated by very little on the official ratings so this race is very much up for grabs.  The market on the day will tell us plenty more as will their appearance in the parade ring, always a must for the fairer sex especially at this time of the year. Fast Response is quite ground dependent (taken out recently on a good surface) so the wet weather coming in late Friday and heavy showers on Saturday are imperative for her to run. She had a lovely warm-up for this race when coming from miles back to finish a never nearer fifth of 16 in a similar Listed affair at Bath after chasing home the classy Vadream in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster.  Vadream would be a likely odds-on shot if running here, so the 8/1 providing the rains arrive, is way too big and stands out as a value bet.

Saturday – Newmarket 14:50 – RAATEA (each-way)

Admiral D was an eye-catcher here last time out, along with the lower in class Saint Lawrence (race not run to suit in the Abernant). Both on my short-list and I may well have a back-up saver bet on the latter as he is well capable of getting involved from off the pace off a mark of 103.

The only negative is the form of the Roger Varian yard, but it is the northern raider RAATEA that gets the vote. This bay gelding may only be one from 15 on the turf, but he has been desperately unlucky in the run on several occasions and caught my eye over seven furlongs at Newcastle last time out behind Larado.

This drop back to a stiff 6f should pose him no problems and twice ran well over the course and distance at the beginning of the last campaign off a mark of 91. He gets to perform off exactly the same rating now. Any rain would certainly aid his cause and as long as his high draw is not a disadvantage (plenty of pace on his side of the track) I will be having a each-way play on him.

Sunday: Newmarket 13:50 – ADJUVANT

A 1m 6f handicap on Sunday and it will be interesting to see if there is any money for the Sir Mark Prescott-trained Sea King. Cemhaan has had a recent wind op and the George Baker yard arrive here in cracking form while top-weight Roberto Escobarr has his easiest task for some time despite his welter burden. But I simply cannot get away from the claims of the Michael Bell-trained Adjuvant who I think could make up into a Group performer this year.

He was only really given the test of stamina he needs at the back end of last year and can be forgiven his final two starts as the field didn’t go nearly fast enough early on to bring his stamina into play. What he needs is an end-to-end gallop and with the outstanding Billy Loughnane taking 3lbs off his back, a rating of 87 looks well within his compass if his handler has him ready followwing a break of 212 days.

His record fresh is pretty good following a break, first and third, and with his yard in form he could well be a springer in the market on the day.

Sunday: Newmarket 15:40 – POWERDRESS

This really is a fascinating renewal of the first fillies’ classic and much will depend on how ready the Irish raiders, Tahiyra and Meditate are, on their three-year-old debuts. The whispers have not been all that great for the former and I am far from sure that the latter will see out this stiff mile with a big field likely to go at full tilt.

It will also be worth watching the previous days’ racing to see how the draw pans out as on watered ground we could get a distinct bias as we did 12 months ago. Trial winners Mammas Girl and Remarquee both need another significant step forward to land this famous race, the clock of the former’s Nell Gwyn win was hardly outstanding.

Time and time again we get big-priced placed horses in the 1,000 Guineas, because they are either very fit, have been on the right side of the draw and/or are ridden to be placed rather than to win.

Powerdress could fit the bill to hit the frame at an almighty price. Richard Hannon’s second string hasn’t been entered here for a day out and caught my eye from off a soft pace in a conditions race here last month when firing up the hill to finish a closing one and three quarter lengths third behind Majestic Pride.

By Dandy Man out of a Frozen Power mare she has every chance of getting home here and I loved the way she relaxed in rear that day for that opening three-year-old salvo before rattling home. Of course it would need improvement of huge proportions to see her win this, but I think she could hit the first four and with questions marks over the first five in the betting, this athletic bay filly will do for me.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Paul Jacobs’ weekend value plays

Saturday Newmarket 14:15 – Fast Response
Saturday Newmarket 14:50 – Raatea (each-way)

Sunday Newmarket 13:50- Adjuvant
Sunday Newmarket 15:40- Powerdress (each-way)

READ MORE

THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW