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Newmarket is preparing to stage the 2000 Guineas and a stroll down history lane could help predict the winner.
It looks set to be a deep contest as a fab field of 14 will tackle the first Classic of the British Flat season at 16:40 on Saturday, May 6.
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby saddled the first two home in last year’s race but the latest renewal looks set to be a battle between a couple of Ballydoyle big beasts as Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear head the market.
The latest 2000 Guineas odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the previous 12 renewals are below.
2000 GUINEAS TRENDS
CAREER RUNS
A decent starting point to filter out horses from the longlist is to look for runners that have had at least three previous runs on the Flat as 11 of the last 12 winners met this trend.
GROUP SUCCESS
A previous success at Group level is crucial as 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one victory in a Group 1-3, while eight of those had already scored at the very top level.
KEY RACES
The Futurity Trophy at Doncaster appears to be the key race to consider as four of the last 12 winners of the 2000 Guineas tackled the Doncaster Group 1 last time out with all four going on to score.
Auguste Rodin routed the field in unfavourable conditions to land land season’s Futurity Trophy, although the Ballydoyle contender has never raced at Newmarket before, which is something seven winners since 2011 had in their form book.
LAST TIME OUT
It is worth looking for a horse that won on their previous start as 10 of the last 12 winners were successful last time out.
ODDS
You generally want to be looking towards the top of Paddy Power’s betting for the 2000 Guineas as eight of the last 12 winners could be found among the top three in the market, while five favourites have obliged in that time.
On the whole, it isn’t a race for rank outsiders as Night Of Thunder’s success at 40/1 in 2014 is the only major shock to have occurred since 2011. That particular winner is a bit of a trend buster.
RATING
The last 12 winners of the 2000 Guineas were all rated at least 109, with Night Of Thunder and Poetic Flare being the lowest rated.
If you filter out the six lowest-rated winners since 2011 then the you are looking for a horse with an official mark of 118, which means last season’s leading juveniles are worth considering.
STALL
A low stall number could be key as seven of the last 12 winners of the 2000 Guineas were drawn in Stall 6 or lower.
VERDICT
Auguste Rodin has to contend with the lack of a previous run at Newmarket and a high draw, but the son of Deep Impact sets the standard based on historical trends. He has been tipped as a Triple Crown prospect and this could be the toughest leg of the three races.
Read More on the 2000 Guineas
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- When is the 2000 Guineas? Newmarket date, start time, runners and betting
- 2000 Guineas tips and runner-by-runner guide to Newmarket 4.40 on Saturday
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