The 2023 Scottish Grand National looks set to be a tricky puzzle for punters to solve as a bumper field of 23 runners prepare to go to post at Ayr on Saturday.
A leaf through the history books exposes a number of key trends to follow if you’re struggling to pick through the horses for your punt with Paddy Power.
Kitty’s Light is the standout name in the field as last year’s runner-up bids to build on February’s emphatic success in the Eider Handicap Chase… but he fails to meet important trend the last 10 renewals.
The latest Scottish Grand National odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise the key trends and stats ahead of this year’s race are below.
SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL TRENDS
AGE
Where better to start than the weakest trend of the lot? There have been Scottish Grand National winners in every age group from seven to 11 in the last 10 renewals, with nine-year-olds proving the most likely to score with three victories in that period.
There has not been a six-year-old winner since Earth Summit in 1994 and he proved to be pretty special, subsequently scoring in the Welsh Grand National in 1997 and Aintree Grand National the following year.
DISTANCE
A crucial trend here as you’re looking for a horse that has at least two previous wins over three miles or further as nine of the last 10 winners have met this trend.
LAST TIME OUT
Of the last 10 winners of the Scottish Grand National, four were successful on their previous run before heading to Ayr including last year’s heroine, Win My Wings, who landed the Eider.
More generally, you’re looking for a horse that produced a decent performance with a gap of 27 to 43 days from that run.
The major outliers are 2014 winner Al Co, who finished 10th in a handicap hurdle 104 days before, and 2017 champion Vicente, who fell in the Grand National 14 days before.
ODDS
There have been some big-priced winners of the Scottish Grand National in the last 10 years including that previously-mentioned trend buster Al Co (40/1) in 2014 and Joe Farrell (33/1) in 2018.
Just two favourites have justified market confidence since 2012 and the average SP of the first past the post in that time is 18/1.
RATING
The lowest-rated winner in the last 10 years was Merigo off 134 in 2012, while Vicente scored off a high handicap mark of 146 in 2016 and 2017.
Dusart and Threeundethrufive are rated higher than 146 while more than half of the field – 12 of the 23 – are on lower marks than 134.
SEASON
Every winner since 2012 had run at least four times over the course of the campaign before landing the Scottish Grand National.
Ayr’s big contest being a horse’s sixth race of the season appears to be the magic number with six of the last 10 winners meeting that trend.
WEIGHT
The history books are against horses lugging a massive weight around the marathon trip at Ayr as Vincente is the only winner in the last 10 renewals to carry more than 11st 3lbs to victory.
Paul Nicholls’ runner was lumbered with 11st 10lbs when landing the spoils for the second year in a row in 2017.
SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL VERDICT
UNDERSUPERVISION, the mount of Sam Twiston-Davies for trainer father Nigel, emerges as the only horse to tick every box for the Scottish Grand National. While he failed to defend his Grimthorpe title last time out, it was a decent run to finish a neck second. A mark of 136 represents a joint-career high in the handicap but he is only seven years of age and, crucially, carries just 10st 10lbs because of top-weight Dusart’s presence in the race.
Kitty’s Light falls short because of the date of his last run, although this year’s Scottish Grand National takes place later on the calendar this year so it would not be surprising if he can follow in former stablemate Win My Wings’ hooves by landing the contest after success in the Eider.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Saturday’s Racing Tips
- ITV Racing tips: Top trader Frank Hickey’s sweet Saturday selections
- Horse Racing tips: Rory Delargy’s fine fancies for ITV Racing
- Matt Chapman’s ITV Racing tips for Ayr and Newbury
Read More
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- When is the Scottish Grand National? Ayr date, start time, runners and betting
- Scottish Grand National tips and runner-by-runner guide to Ayr 3.35 on Saturday
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