Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ Sunday value plays across the tracks

Value's the name of the game when PJ's in town.

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Paul Jacobs betting tips:

2.00 Fairyhouse – Neveradullmoment (each way)
3.10 Fairyhouse – Parmenion
3.25 Ffos Las – Volcano
4.55 Fairyhouse – Sir Gerhard

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

2.00 Fairyhouse – Neveradullmoment (each way)

For me this first race/selection was the most interesting betting event of the day and being a big field handicap gives us much more room to manoeuvre from an each-way punting perspective.

Ted Hastings has been in good form since last year with a four timer, some three months apart on both the flat and over hurdles and any significant drying of the ground will be in his favour. However, he is set to take on better opposition here in a deeper race and will have his work cut out to deal with the likes of Invictis Machin, the well-weighted Junior Alliance and the strongly fancied selection Neveradullmoment.

I thought that the son of Mahler would always appreciate a stretch of ground on a forgiving surface since his hugely eye catching and late closing seventh of 21 at Punchestown behind Captain Conby in a maiden hurdle early in his career. However, he failed to deal with the very deep ground at Limerick the following month after which he reverted to a bare two miles, but unable to summon the speed to have a shot at the front runners on his next two starts. Two outings back at Naas he came from miles back to finish a nose second and then over the same C&D at the back end of February the race was run at a crawl which left him at a huge disadvantage.

So I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt here on his return to two and a half in the hope we get a well run race and he manages to not get too far adrift to boot.

3.10 Fairyhouse – Parmenion

Doctor Bravo has the pick of the form for this Grade Two novice hurdle based on his second at Gowran Park to Fil Dor and his eighth of 11 in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival when his hurdling suffered badly in the closing stages.

But by far the least exposed in the 12 runner field is one of the four Willie Mullins’ runners Parmenion and the pick of stable jockey Paul Townend. The five-year-old is yet to race at this level before, but I was hugely impressed with the manner of his easy victory in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown last time out, a run that can be hugely upgraded as he made mistakes over at least half of the obstacles that day.

Sure to have benefited from that experience, a better round of hurdling here should see him take the step forward needed to land this event before a possible run in grade one company at the Punchestown Festival.

3.25 Ffos Las – Volcano

I would really fancy the top weight Sidi Ismael here with Fergus Gillard taking 3lbs off his welter weight if the ground were not as deep as forecast, but giving bucket loads of weight away in what is sure to be searching ground over an extended three and a half miles may well be beyond him.

Truckers Lodge, set to race off 125, some 13lbs below his last winning mark, looks a player, but I was massively underwhelmed by his run in the Midlands’ National at Uttoxeter last month.

Equus Dreamer was a game winner of the Tim Molony at Haydock Park last month, but he had a brutally hard race that day and preference is for the recent Warwick winner Volcano. Six from 25 over fences, the nine-year-old ran really well from well out of the handicap when a fair fifth in the Warwick Classic Chase in January and back on his real mark he readily dealt with Destiny Is All and eight other rivals off 115 on his last racecourse appearance. A 6lbs penalty looks very fair and he certainly won’t be inconvenienced by today’s tough conditions.

4.55 Fairyhouse – Sir Gerhard

In what looks a truly cracking renewal of the feature WillowWarm Gold Cup (4.55), one of four graded contests on a fabulous card at Fairyhouse this afternoon, Mighty Potter looks sure to start a warm favourite despite his defeat in the Turner Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Despite that below par run he still had several of his rivals today behind him and is likely to go off a short priced favourite here and is rightly respected.

However, he makes the market for us and my selection Sir Gerhard, a two time Cheltenham Festival winner, is in mind mind set to return to his best trip after running over the wrong distance at the Prestbury Park venue last month when he finished a distant ninth in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase over three miles.

This intermediate trip is surely a much better fit with the added plus that the selection arrives here a much fresher horse than his rivals.

Paul Jacobs betting tips:

2.00 Fairyhouse – Neveradullmoment (each way)
3.10 Fairyhouse – Parmenion
3.25 Ffos Las – Volcano
4.55 Fairyhouse – Sir Gerhard

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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