Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ Sunday value plays across the tracks

Value's the name of the game when PJ's in town.

Paul Jacobs byline new

By / Horse Racing Tips / 1 year ago

Paul Jacobs betting tips:

3.00 Ascot – Afadil
3.20 Doncaster – Chairmanoftheboard
4.00 Downpatrick – Forza Milan
5.40 Doncaster – Ey Up Its Maggie

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

3.00 Ascot – Afadil

No less than five of the 15 runners here ran in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and all of them have a chance of sorts in this valuable follow-up. The key factor here could be the ground, which following heavy rain on Friday, is going to be plenty testing enough. Arclight failed by two lengths behind Greyval at Doncaster, but that looks solid form as the winner has since gone in again at Huntingdon.

On his British debut, the well touted Bad ran way too freely at the Festival and paid for those early exertions by weakening on the run home and looks sure to have benefited from that experience. Paul Nicholls has two in the run and it is my selection that looks the pick with Cobden booked to ride.

The son of Camelot had every chance at the top of the hill at the Prestbury Park track, but was badly outpaced after running with the choke out in moderately run renewal before finding his second wind up the final climb to finish eighth of the 21 runners beaten less than eight lengths. Surprisingly dropped 2lbs to 121 for that run he will not mind the ground conditions here and it is worth remembering this will only be his fifth start over timber and eighth under rules as a whole.

3.20 Doncaster – Chairmanoftheboard

All the handicaps on the second day of the turf flat season look enticing to me as they are the very definition of ‘Value Play’ races and in Jack Channon’s runner we could have the perfect horse for this 22-runner, six furlong handicap sprint.

The seven-year-old hasn’t had his ideal soft ground conditions since a cracking close up fourth to Magical Spirit in a better contest over the course and distance in October when he looked more than a shade unlucky as he tried to wind his way through the pack late on, but he now finds himself set to race off a mark some 7lbs lower of 79 with the brilliant William Buick on board.

The selection is best when allowed to lob along at the rear of the field and set alight late on off a fast pace which seems assured here. Provided his esteemed partner can secure a clear passage, I fancy the seven-year-old can take care of the likes of the Able Kane, also well treated and race fit Dream Composer.

4.00 Downpatrick – Forza Milan

The thrills and likely spills of the Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase require a deal more than the stamina needed to see out the three and a half mile trip. For on the roller coaster track you need a well balanced horse to deal with the unique terrain of the Ballydugan track as it winds its way through the countryside.

It is interesting that Noel Meade has persevered with Eurobot who went off as low as 5/1 for the 2021 Cork National and has only faced the starter on three starts since, pulling up twice and falling at opening obstacle in the 2021 Paddy Power Chase. An absence of 384 days followed before pulling up at Punchestown in January, but any significant market move should be heeded and he is a fascinating runner.

Punitive and Fakiera are closely matched on December form at Fairyhouse and both will be suited to this slog, but have gone up in the weights so it is the veteran chaser that I fancy to roll back the years. It was not long ago that the 11-year-old was rated as high as 134, 6th of 11 behind Dingo Dollar at Aintree six months ago and now five races on gets the chance to run off a mark of just 109. Of course it could be that he has regressed by that much, but I think there is a bit more petrol in the tank and if he gets into a nice rhythm he could go well at a massive price.

5.40 Doncaster – Ey Up Its Maggie

The last two races on the Town Moor card are both lower graded handicap sprints and the first horse that caught my eye here was Glory Fighter who loves a bit of dig in the ground and arguably has his best chance for some time in a race of this ilk.

However, I have taken a closer look at this race and on closer inspection it is the Tony Coyle trained top weight that catches the eye. The five-year-old mare only has three wins to her name from 27 starts, but has been racing in some red hot handicaps over the past 12 months and despite the weight burden this is a significant drop in grade.

A close up sixth in the Listed Land O’Burns Stakes at Ayr last summer and previously placed off a mark as high as 87, the selection now finds herself in a class five handicap running off a mark of 72 with the new kid on the block, Billy Loughnane aboard. Deep ground is of no concern to her either and she is taken to make her class count against her fellow top weight and further down the list Indian Sounds.

Paul Jacobs betting tips:

3.00 Ascot – Afadil
3.20 Doncaster – Chairmanoftheboard
4.00 Downpatrick – Forza Milan
5.40 Doncaster – Ey Up Its Maggie

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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