Cheltenham Festival trends for every race on day 3 of the 2023 meeting

Some super stats to take note of!

Pertemps Network Final


Planning to have a punt with Paddy Power on the Cheltenham Festival? Well, it’s only sensible to do as much research as possible before you get your ducks in a row!

We like to think we’re helpful folks here at PP News so we’ve gone through the history books to pick out some key trends for all seven races on the third day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.

The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle is the feature race and it looks wide open as emerging forces Blazing Khal and Teahupoo take a crack at Flooring Porter, who has won the last two renewals.

Shishkin will bid to add a second Cheltenham Festival success to his CV in the Ryanair Chase, which is missing dual winner Allaho due to a training setback.

The other Grade 1 on Thursday opens the card as Mighty Potter faces Banbridge and Appreciate It. It could be a day for each-way punting as there are a few big-field handicaps as well as a competitive renewal of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

Cheltenham Festival odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise the key trends for all seven races on Thursday at Cheltenham are below.

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Cheltenham 1:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

You want to look for a horse aged six or seven as Samcro is the only previous winner to have been outside of this age bracket, which is bad news for Appreciate It backers.

A further negative for Appreciate It – as well as James Du Berlais and Balco Coastal – is that 10 of the last 11 winners were successful on their last completed run over fences.

Cheltenham 2:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)

It might be worth looking towards the top of the weights as 10 of the last 12 winners have been rated at least 138 by the handicapper.

History suggests avoiding winners of qualifiers – two of the last 21 achieved the feat – but the change in qualification rules means that could be a stat that is worth taking on.

Cheltenham 2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

A worrying stat for Shishkin supporters is that the last nine winners were French bred.

You should look towards the head of Paddy Power’s betting for the Ryanair Chase as 10 of the last 11 winners had a starting price of 8/1 or lower.

Cheltenham 3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Teahupoo could make history as no horse has ever won the Galmoy Hurdle and the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle in the same season.

It pays to have youth on side as eight of the last nine winners of the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle were aged six or seven.

Cheltenham 4:10 – Magners Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)

It could be worth restricting your shortlist to novice or second-season chasers as that has been the profile of the previous seven winners.

A way to further reduce your potential pick is to look for horses with a win at the course this season as the previous four winners were all scoring at Cheltenham again.

Cheltenham 4:50 – Jack De Bromhead Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

A race with only six renewals in the history books – but every single winner has been aged five or six.

Luccia backers will be concerned to know that British-bred horses are 0-22 in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

Cheltenham 5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase

The handicapper’s ratings could provide an angle as 10 of the last 11 winners ran off marks between 137 and 143.

Stumptown was strongly supported on the preview circuit but the trends are not in the six-year-old’s favour as 16 of the last 18 winners were aged between seven and nine.

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