Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Tips
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Several of these have plenty to prove, none more so than top weight and course winner Fayette who hasn’t really gone on from his success in December at this Lincolnshire venue and it could be that he needs some help from the assessor. Having said that, this looks a mediocre contest of its type (0-100, class five) and he may still be on the premises. Money For Jam has been threatening to win a race of this nature, but his two runs on a soft surface have been well below par to date.
But I have had Hokelami on my tracker list for a while and now could be the time to jump in on the Olly Murphy trained charge.
Two of his three runs in novice and maiden hurdle company have been hugely disappointing, but on his second start he really caught my eye when staying on under minimal pressure to finish a never nearer third behind Clonakilty at Uttoxeter. He has been too keen and/or not jumped well on his last two starts, but this race could be within his talent marker and a 3lbs drop for his last run down to a mark of 92 looks more than fair.
Bred to be pretty good on the level, Dancila was never rated above 86 on the flat in Ireland, but has quickly hit the mark over hurdles with a convincing win at Musselburgh first time up when he beat up a fair field to the tune of four and a half lengths and more. The penalty obviously makes this a much more difficult task, but he is rightly feared if taking another step forward here.
However, the Skeltons rarely leave this venue without a winner and their representative Great Samourai has had a short career blighted by bad luck and ill circumstance. On his sole start in a point to point he looked as though he was coming to win his race before falling two out when disputing the lead. Then fairly strong in the market on his hurdles debut at Taunton, Harry could do nothing about him pulling way too hard and he had shot his bolt before turning into the home straight and thereafter was allowed to come home in his own time. There was obviously more to him stopping so quickly than running too freely as he has undergone a wind procedure since then. Quite highly regarded I shall be surprised if he isn’t able to put it to the likely favourite if that op has worked.
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A low grade, staying handicap hurdle with several of these still hiding their true talent under a bushel against the majority of runners that are simply very moderate hurdlers.
With the talented Liam McKenna taking 5lbs off his back I suspect Atlantian will be involved racing off a 2lbs lower mark than last time. He should also have no problem dropping back from three miles. But at a much bigger price I would prefer to have an each-way play on the five-year-old Quornofamonday who I thought was a real eye catcher last time out.
On that occasion, the bay gelding was anchored towards the rear of the 25-runner field at Fairyhouse and never really got into the race. Hampered twice, both at halfway and then at the second last by a faller, he was merely pushed out hands and heels to finish a never nearer 10th, beaten some 19 lengths. He gets a chance to run off the same mark here of 87 and a move in the market would make him an even more interesting betting proposition.
Hold That Taught is nicely treated on his best form, but needs to find a spark from somewhere which could come from the addition of the cheek pieces, but Venetia Williams hardly has her team in the peak of form and I would prefer to look elsewhere.
Northern raider Destiny Is All is easily preferred as he looks an out and out stayer and has a lovely racing weight to carry on this testing going, but he has been found in the market place.
Volcano ran a cracking race in the Warwick Classic from well out of the handicap so back on his proper mark in a lesser race he looks sure to go from the front if in the same kind of form, but the one I like as a better value each-way play has to be the bottom weight Jaytee. With only five runs over fences under his belt, the eight-year-old remains an unexposed at this game and will have the genuine soft ground he needs for the first time since hacking up at Taunton a year ago off a mark of 103. Since then the chestnut gelding has twice been placed off 112 and 113 and although this is a markedly better race than he normally attends I suspect this even great of test of stamina could see him bridge that gap.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Tips
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