Rory Delargy’s Gold Cup pick non runner money back
The Cheltenham Festival 2023 is edging ever closer and we’ve got jump jockey icon turned tactical guru Ruby Walsh and top pundit Rory Delargy with us every week to hopefully get you more bang for your buck.
The Gold Cup is the fourth race on Day 4 of this year’s Cheltenham Festival, and the lads have been looking at the markets to hopefully find you a winner.
Galopin Des Champs is the current favourite at the time of writing, followed by Noble Yeats, A Plus Tard, Bravemansgame and Shishkin who are all closely priced together. It’s the feature race of the Cheltenham Festival, so let’s get Rory’s thoughts on what he expects to see on March 17th.
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The Cheltenham Gold Cup
The more I look at the Gold Cup, the more it confuses me, and even when I came to my conclusion, there was an immediate desire to change it. Sometimes these things find clarity on the day – I do hope so!
Galopin des Champs is the one to beat it seems, and I felt that he answered any stamina questions in the Irish Gold Cup where he looked like he might have to work very hard, but seemed to pick up again halfway up the run-in, finishing strongly for a clear-cut success over Stattler.
That picture is slightly flattering as Fury Road hung badly on the run-in and lost ground by doing so, but the run did paint Galopin des Champs as a strong stayer at 3m. Cheltenham is different, of course, but Leopardstown does really test stamina from the home turn, and the winner was not found wanting. He was hard to pull up afterwards, which is a positive, but there was a negative in that he looked very tired when returning to the winners’ enclosure.
That’s to be expected, but it puts pressure on his trainer to get him fresh enough to run to the same level, and the Irish Gold Cup hasn’t been a great pointer to its Cheltenham equivalent, perhaps due to the proximity of the races and the gruelling nature of staying races at the top level.
A Plus Tard has the best form and he was very impressive in winning last year’s contest, particularly the way he sprinted clear of a strong field from the last with the race looking wide-open on the turn for home. He will win again if in the same form, but he’s not raced since his abject display in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, and while connections have intimated that they have found a reason for that, it’s hard to be confident, and his preparation for this contest is sub-optimal, to say the least.
What I would say in mitigation for both he and Galopin des Champs is that in Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead, they have the best trainers around for bringing a horse to peak in mid-March. Both tend to break the established rules of what is and isn’t possible in preparing one for this meeting, and Henry de Bromhead in particular doesn’t get enough praise for his achievements.
Assuming Shishkin goes to the Ryanair Chase (a dangerous assumption), then Bravemansgame is the next to consider, with his King George win being impressive. I didn’t have him down as a contender before that, with the eight-year-old having coming up short at the top level at the big festivals as a novice over hurdles and fences.
I wasn’t impressed with his win in the Charlie Hall, but he did seem to run to a higher level at Kempton. In saying that, the history of the King George is full of dashing winners who have looked a cut above but have been unable to cope with the demands of Cheltenham, so despite him having worked his way into my consciousness for the race, I’m still against him here.
Ahoy Senor was no match for Bravemansgame at Wetherby and Kempton, but got back to winning ways in the Cotswold Chase in January. He ran well to be second in the Brown Advisory last year despite seeming to panic at every ditch, and he was better (but far from flawless) in that department here last time.
He beat Bravemansgame in Grade 1 novice events at Aintree in 2021 and 2022, and seems to save his best for when the sun shines. His problem is that he can take a while to get his jumping warmed up, and can make some odd shapes at his fences. He was very good at Aintree last April, and it seems match practice is key to him. He could be beaten by the time they get to the first ditch on some of his showings, but if he jumps the first two fences relatively well, then he has the ability to get into a strong rhythm which will stretch his rivals. When he does find that rhythm, his jumping can be spectacular.
I maintained that he would be a much better horse this spring, and promised not to get dismayed if he was beaten by his old rival in the Charlie Hall, but I definitely had a big wobble on that vow when he went to Kempton for the King George. He does need to put in a career-best effort, but is still a work in progress, and while always risky due to his jumping, undoubtedly has the talent to win this race.
Protektorat has won twice here (once on appeal after being demoted), but he’s also been beaten seven times, and that is not the profile of a Gold Cup winner, despite his impressive win in the Betfair Chase. He’s brilliant on a Flat track, but failed to fire in the Cotswold Chase behind Ahoy Senor, and is overlooked. Minella Indo is a veteran now, but Festival form figures of 1212 means he can’t be ignored, while Stattler could well be placed if getting the good gallop which will bring his stamina to the fore. That comment also applies to Noble Yeats, who is in much the same mould.
Verdict: Ahoy Senor has the talent and grit to do it.
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Rory’s Gold Cup Tip:
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