Horse Racing Tips: Rory Delargy’s top picks for Saturday’s ITV Racing

Rory fancies Truckers Lodge at 2:03 at Musselburgh.

By / Horse Racing Tips / 1 year ago

Rory Delargy’s Saturday Tips

1:10 Sandown – Hot Rod Lincoln
1:45 Sandown – Red Rookie
2:03 Musselburgh – Truckers Lodge
2:20 Sandown – Gerri Colombe
2:55 Sandown – Dolphin Square
3:30 Sandown – Movethechains

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

1:10 Sandown – Hot Rod Lincoln

Hot Rod Lincoln may well prove a different proposition now tried in handicaps and with a tongue tie fitted, and is chanced in a modest contest. Winner of his only start in points at Corbeagh House when beating the now 125-rated Ballykeel by eight lengths, he has failed to translate that form to hurdles as yet, although he was well backed when fourth to the useful Knowsley Road at Chepstow in November.

His Chepstow run makes him look fairly handicapped, while he was too keen there and failed to see his race out, so could do better if settling. His latest run at Hereford was poor, but he was anchored in rear there and the run was required to get a handicap mark, so it’s not hard to forgive. It’s possible that he’s developed issues which mean that he won’t fulfil his early potential, but he’s worth one chance to prove himself better than he’s been able to show so far.

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1:45 Sandown – Red Rookie

The obvious starting point here is the horse the race is named after, and Dolos has a C&D record over fences outside of Grade 1 company which reads 21121, with all five runs coming in this corresponding event. He is 3lb higher than when winning this 12 months ago, but has been rated much higher in the past, so can be expected to run well again, but I’m opposing him with Red Rookie.

Emma Lavelle’s charge needed his run over a trip he’s yet to prove he stays at Chepstow on Welsh Grand National day, and he should be at peak fitness now. A smart novice, he didn’t always get a chance to show his true worth, falling at Ascot when favourite and then capsizing at the last in the Arkle at Cheltenham when running on to dispute fourth place. That was an encouraging run off the back of a poor preparation, and he jumped well on the whole, which means I’m not concerned about his non-completions.

Red Rookie would have finished roughly alongside War Lord at Cheltenham, but while the Arkle fourth was given a mark of 149 to start this season, the selection was rated 140, and has been dropped another 2lb for his comeback. That looks to underestimate him, and he looks much the likeliest winner here.

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2:03 Musselburgh – Truckers Lodge

On the subject of the Welsh Grand National, I also thought that Truckers Lodge was better than the result in fourth place, and the handicapper has belatedly shown him some kindness after two full seasons where he has been harshly treated. Winner of the Midlands National off 141 in 2020, he was raised a stone for that success, and has been banging his head against a brick wall since, albeit only figuratively.

Now, at the age of 11, the assessor has decided that he needs a little help, and he has been dropped 10lb for his last four runs, which include two creditable placed efforts. With Freddie Gingell taking off 7lb as he did last time, Truckers Lodge is simply too well treated to ignore, and while often regarded as a mudlark, has actually gained most of his wins on good ground.

2:20 Sandown – Gerri Colombe

It’s intriguing that Gordon Elliott has chosen the Scilly Isles rather than the Scalp for stable star Gerri Colombe, although he does have the warm favourite for the latter in the shape of Mighty Potter, so the move makes plenty of sense. This will be the fastest ground that Gerri Colombe has raced on, but it shouldn’t be so quick as to cause him problems, and he looks a genuine Grade 1 performer against handicappers. The next three in the betting are closely matched on form, and there isn’t an obvious angle against the favourite, who ought to get the job done.   

2:55 Sandown – Dolphin Square

This race has been won by the likes of Baracouda in the past, so it’s a rather disappointing turnout this time around, albeit with numbers holding up well enough. Given the lack of depth, I thought that the consistent Dolphin Square was overpriced, and he should be well suited by the way this race will be run, given he tends to stay on well late. He is only 2lb higher than when winning over C&D on the Tingle Creek card, and upheld that form with several who reopposed at Cheltenham last month, typically staying on again late having lost his pitch going down the hill.

He’s not ahead of the handicapper, but he clearly fairly treated, and while following David Maxwell over fences this season has been a case of chasing losses, he’s looked less of a liability over hurdles, and his limitations are always built into the odds. Indeed, backing just his mounts over hurdles in the past five seasons would have seen 19 of 69 bets successful for a profit at SP of £633.10. Doing the same with the chasers, incidentally, would have saddled you with losses of £673.90. That also works in Euros.

3:30 Sandown – Movethechains

Niall Houlihan has very much been catching the eye this season, with two big wins on Editeur du Gite the highlights, and it’s hard to believe that those have been the claimer’s only wins over fences this term. He could hardly have ridden better in the Clarence House Chase and he should certainly be adding to his tally, with Movethechains looking to have a better chance than the market suggests.

A four-time winner over fences last season on varying ground at Lingfield, he faced a stiff task in the Welsh National on his return, and ran creditably in the circumstances to finishing fifth behind The Two Amigos. He was beaten a long way in the end at Chepstow, but had little chance under a hold-up ride given the placed horses were always in the front rank, and he made eye-catching headway into contention on the second circuit before lack of fitness and/or stamina saw him fade out of things in the straight. I saw that as a most encouraging comeback, and he’s effectively 4lb lower here when considering Houlihan’s claim.   

Rory Delargy’s Saturday Tips

1:10 Sandown – Hot Rod Lincoln
1:45 Sandown – Red Rookie
2:03 Musselburgh – Truckers Lodge
2:20 Sandown – Gerri Colombe
2:55 Sandown – Dolphin Square
3:30 Sandown – Movethechains

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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