Paul Jacobs’ Value Plays
13:15 Newcastle – KITTEN’S DREAM
14:10 Thurles – STUMPTOWN
14:30 Lingfield – DJELO – Meeting Abandoned on Sunday morning.
15:15 Newcastle – BENEFICIARY
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
13:15 Newcastle – KITTEN’S DREAM
Ever since a similar race was run over the course and distance on January 4th, I have been waiting to have an each-way play on Kitten’s Dream knowing that the bay gelding was a deal better than his finishing position suggested that day. In a race run at just a moderate, but even gallop, he was very keen in rear and could never get into any kind of rhythm.
So when the pace quickened just inside the three furlong pole, he was not surprisingly badly outpaced and took a while to gather himself in before making some solid late gains when the race was all but run.
That day, Quercus Robur beat him by some eight and a quarter lengths with the likes of Miscarlett and Freewheelin also ahead of the selection in third and fourth places respectively. Scott Dixon’s charge re-opposes those three on much better terms here, with in particular an 8lbs pull with the winner. Granted a stronger pace and settling better in behind I expect a big turnaround here.
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14:10 Thurles – STUMPTOWN
It is fair to say that I was really disappointed in the fields for this meeting, especially with several valuable prizes up for grabs meaning that this extended 2m5f handicap chase offered us the biggest field of the day with just the 10 set to go to post.
Several of these like to race prominently so even in the conditions we should have a good gallop on our hands. I think that Carrolls Cottage is on a potentially winning mark of 119, while Gallyhill should go well despite his welter burden with the recently returned Davy Russell up top.
However, I am going to give another chance to Stumptown despite in his five race chasing career he has hardly looked like a natural over fences. Each time he has run, I particularly remember a horrendous round of jumping at Fairyhouse in November, the gelding has looked short of confidence when weighing up his obstacles.
He only entered the handicapping realm two outings back, but his last run is easily over looked as he was never given a chance to get involved in the race obviously with a view to getting him home on his three mile debut.
However, there were signs previously that this kind of trip would be his optimum and the key could well be Danny Mullins partnering him for the first time. I think this horse needs a strong jockey to make up his mind for him and there is no better in that department than Danny Mullins on an each-way price in a wide open contest.
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15.15 – Newcastle – BENEFICIARY
I thought this was an eminently winnable 6f event. Mighty Gurkha is the best handicapped in this small field, but he continues to run like a drain, while a drop of 8lbs in 11 months for the top weight Shalaa Asker on the back of two better runs at Southwell gives him claims as well.
But Beneficiary hails from a yard just running into form, another winner on Saturday, and the step back up to a sixth furlongs looks right up his street on this stiff track. He remains relatively unexposed as well after only the six career starts.
14:30 Lingfield – DJELO – Meeting abandoned Sunday
This very valuable handicap hurdle over two miles holds several interesting entries, perhaps none more so than the top weight Might I who was being earmarked as a possible outsider for the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. However, his run in the big staying handicap hurdle at Haydock Park earlier in the season scuppered those plans as he plainly failed to stay and now he is right back down at two miles.
Top weight shouldn’t bother him from a physical point of view and he is now 3lbs lower in the weights, but I just feel that an intermediate trip may serve him better. Playful Saint went straight into my note book when given a very ‘considerate’ ride at Chepstow on his comeback run.
Next time out in a valuable handicap hurdle at Sandown he stayed on well up the hill for second and then duly followed that up in a lesser race at Leicester. A 5lbs penalty makes him the biggest danger to my selection Djelo. Trained by Venetia Williams, he is actually worse off at the weights with Jungle Jack who beat him readily at Haydock Park.
However, the winner was surely flattered by that success when he was allowed to dictate at a somber pace from the front and quickened clear after the last. It is clear that the selection needs more of a test of stamina at this trip and with several pressers in this race we could get a completely different outcome.
Paul Jacobs’ Value Plays
13:15 Newcastle – KITTEN’S DREAM
14:10 Thurles – STUMPTOWN
14:30 Lingfield – DJELO – meeting abandoned Sunday
15:15 Newcastle – BENEFICIARY
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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