Paul Jacobs’ Value Bets
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
1.00 – Kelso – BARNABAS COLLINS/HALCYON DAYS
From a punting point of view I thought this had the best betting shape of any race on Sunday, being the most open event to boot. However, on closer look I managed to cross off nine of the field pretty quickly, leaving just the seven to look at more closely!!! Outsider Halcyon Days interested me down the bottom of the weights for Katie Scott despite looking thoroughly exposed following 17 outings over hurdles with just one place to her name.
However, the majority of those races have been over three miles and she was still going nicely before departing at the eighth over two and a half miles last time out. I think this drop to two miles on deep ground could suit her and she may be worth having a small saver behind my main selection.
The top weight has obviously had plenty of training problems having visited the race course on only four occasions, winning his bumper on his debut. Following a 333-day break, the son of Shantou put up a hugely promising performance when fifth of 10 at Market Rasen.
That day he travelled like the best horse for most of the journey and only backed out before the second last, when quite obviously fitness became an issue. With that run behind him, I think the eight-year-old has the potential to outclass his rivals in this class in this 0-100 event.
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1.40 – Punchestown – VERO VERTO
Following a clear cut win at Thurles, bottom weight Light Parade ran a cracking third in a big field over two and a half miles at Cork against some less exposed sorts and back against her own sex this looks a suitable opportunity for the lightly raced six-year-old. However, I just feel that Gavin Cromwell’s mare has the class to give the weight away all round having only her ninth hurdles start.
To my eyes she has been quite a slow burner and allied to the fact that the stable have been struggling somewhat I think that the five-year-old mare has done better than her bare form figures suggest culminating in a really eye catching fourth at Limerick last time out. On that occasion the daughter of Prince Lir found herself some way out of her ground, before making stealthy headway from the third last, eventually finishing a never nearer 11 lengths off the winner when fourth of the 14 runners. I am convinced that there is a lot more to come from her if ridden more positively.
2.30 – Kelso – BEAT BOX
It’s a shame that there are only seven at the max to go to post here, and this will probably be the least value bet of the day, but I would be very happy backing the selection at 2/1 in an event which I think won’t take much winning. In a lower class race at Ayr last time out, the seven-year-old simply galloped all over his rivals following a hugely eye catching run at Hexham and I was surprised he went off as big as 9/4 favourite at the West of Scotland track.
He won that day despite getting loose beforehand yet still handed out a six length plus beating to his eight rivals, galloping right through the finish as though he was miles ahead of the handicapper. The assessor reacted by raising him 7lbs for that win and I thought that was quite conservative and despite this hike in class, in this ground his light weight will count for plenty against some out of form and exposed rivals.
3.20 – Southwell – THE GREEN MAN/INTERVENTION
The hat-trick seeking Westmorian, well handicapped Straits of Mayle and Intervention all have solid claims in this competitive class four handicap. The last named is particularly interesting as he ran over seven furlongs last time out and nearly took Billy Loughnane’s arms out of his sockets when flying clear and he was simply a sitting duck from the moment he turned into the straight.
Back to six furlongs, from a good draw and with a faster pace guaranteed, the odds are that he will be able to settle better and use his finishing kick to good effect inside the final 220 yards. He is worth a small saver behind the top weight who remains thoroughly unexposed.
The selection has only raced 10 times, twice on the sand, but looked over the top for the season when running way down the field in the final of a class two handicap sprint series at Nottingham last back end of the flat season. Previously a winner of 78 and placed off 82, this drop to a class four event off 81 looks a perfect start to his 2023 campaign and it would be no surprise to see him outclass this bunch.
Paul Jacobs’ Value Bets
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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