King George VI Chase trends to note for big Kempton race on Boxing Day

Who'll come out on top in the Boxing Day bash up at Kempton?

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

The King George VI Chase is one of the biggest contests on the British racing calendar and it boasts an illustrious honours list.

The likes of Best Mate, Desert Orchid, Kauto Star and Kicking King have claimed the Christmas cracker over the years but we had a shock 28/1 winner of last season’s renewal when Tornado Flyer came out on top.

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We’ve taken a deep dive into the history books to find some winners’ trends so hopefully we can lend a helping hand if you’re planning to have a punt on Monday’s 14:30 at Kempton.

You can view the latest King George VI Chase odds on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise the key trends ahead of this year’s renewal can be found below.

King George VI Chase trends

BREAK

A horse needs some race fitness in the bank as the last 20 winners all returned from a break of 21 to 63 days. Royale Pagaille is making his seasonal reappearance having last run in the Betway Bowl at Aintree in April.

PRICE

While the last two winners of the race were well down the betting, there has not been a winner with a starting price bigger than 28/1 in the last 20 renewals. Millers Bank, the winner of last season’s Manifesto Novices’ Chase, currently props up the market at a much-bigger price with Paddy Power.

PRICE (LAST TIME OUT)

The last 20 winners were all priced no bigger than 6/1 last time out which means we can put a line through Eldorado Allen and Frodon.

FORM

It’s rare that you get a first-time Grade 1 scorer in the King George VI Chase as 11 of the last 12 winners had a previous victory at the top level. Hitman has hit the post on a number of occasions but falls short of meeting this trend.

COURSE

It helps to have course experience as 10 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Kempton, while seven of the last 12 winners had previously been first past the post at the track. Crucially, Bravemansgame claimed last season’s Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over course and distance in impressive fashion. Envoi Allen and L’Homme Presse have never raced at Kempton before.

VERDICT

BRAVEMANSGAME might the lack the star quality of some previous winners but Paul Nicholls’ leading stayer ticks the boxes for this year’s renewal of the King George VI Chase thanks to his combination of Grade 1 form and liking for the track at Kempton. He routed Ahoy Senor in the Kauto Star 12 months ago and Lucinda Russell’s gelding has failed to fire in two outings this term.

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