Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 5 Boxing Day value plays across the tracks

PJ's had his say on the where there's value to be found at the Boxing Day tracks.

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Paul Jacobs’ Horse Racing Tips

DECEMBER 26 VALUE PLAYS

13:10 Leopardstown – Risk Bell
13:35 Wetherby – Aye Right
14:30 Kempton – Eldorado Allen/Millers
15:15 Limerick – Sunnyvilla
15:40 Kempton – The Bomber Liston

13:10 Leopardstown – Risk Belle

Lossiemouth was undeniably impressive at Fairyhouse last time out and several of the boys she beat that day have declined the invitation to run against her again here. Still, I think she may well have been flattered that day off a stop start pace as she was in the right place at the right time, and with a 3lbs penalty she will start at restrictive odds.

That means there should be a bucket load of each-way alternatives here at prices north of 7/1. Nusret is interesting after winning as he liked at Punchestown, but I wanted a bigger price and the double figures available about the Mullins’ other filly RISK BELLE are surely way too big.

The daughter of No Risk At All looked in need of that run behind her stable mate, but still had every chance between the final two flights before she seemingly blew up.

That was her first run since coming over from France and I think she will take a significant step forward here, as indeed she must do, to play a part in this grade one juvenile.

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13:35 Wetherby – Aye Right

With Fanion D’Eestruval keeping the weights down, this looks a cracking betting feature at Wetherby for the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase. Lucy Turner takes a valuable 5lbs off the top weight and it could be that this kind of trip brings about substantial improvement in him. However, he has no easy task giving lumps of weight away here to some fair performers and I am going to take a chance on a double figure price in AYE RIGHT.

He ran a rare below par race in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, but the vets could find nothing wrong with him that day and one bad run is always worth forgiving in this game. At the weights, he has a cracking chance of reversing Cotswold Chase form with Chantry House with the valuable 5lbs off his back courtesy of Edward Austin which makes him look more than fairly handicapped.

Should he return to his best at a track where he finished 7l off the mighty Cyrname when that horse cruised to victory in a Charlie Hall then we should see this great servant to connections be involved at the finish. 

Shan Blue is conceivably well weighted if ready to go for Dan Skelton after a break after having last year’s Charlie Hall in the bag before coming to grief, while Zanza is also interesting stepping up to three miles after bolting up at his beloved Newbury last time out.

14:30 Kempton – Eldorado Allen/ Millers Bank

Just 7lbs separates the top four in this field of nine for the King George and the shape of the race means it has the perfect set-up for an each-way play. Will the ground be soft enough for Royal Pagaille? Will Ahoy Senor be able to successfully jump at speed after bungling last year’s effort in the Kauto Star? Can Bravemansgame produce a career best, which he will undoubtedly need to do to follow up that novice win 12 months ago? Is L’Homme Presse as good going right-handed on ground that will not be hock deep as it was when he won the Brown Advisory so impressively at Cheltenham? And will his rivals allow Frodon to dictate the race at the sharp end when he won a moderate renewal in two years ago?

My answer to those questions is likely to be – no, no, may be, no and foolishly it’s a possibility, which if I am only part right could blow this year’s renewal right open. Hitman has the potential to blow his rating right out of the water now that he goes over three miles, but he had a very easy task last time out (wasn’t entirely fluent at his obstacles), I think Nicholls just wanted to give him more practice, and he will surely not get his own way out in front here.

So that left me with just the three. I am not so sure Envoi Allen beat anything in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal which means at the odds I am going to back the two outsiders. First up, Eldorado Allen has only had three goes at this trip and seems to have been hugely overlooked in the market place.

A bump at the first at Aintree at the end of a long hard season made him lose his confidence at the back end of last year. He then ran really well behind Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall before the deep ground at Haydock found him out in the Betfair. Good to soft is his domain going right handed and he should outrun his price. The argument for Millers Bank is harder to pass on but take out Hitman and he is the least exposed at the trip. His Kempton Park record is 122 and this extra half-mile and with cheek pieces applied could see him run a huge race at massive odds. 

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15:15 Limerick – Sunnyvilla

Hardly one of the feature races of the day, but I really liked the betting shape of this extended two mile handicap chase. Nearly all of the 12 entries have question marks over them, but with so much pace in the race, two confirmed front runners and no less than six pressers, this could be set up for a runner that likes to be hunted round from off the pace.

So, step forward SUNNYVILLA who has to be anchored in rear. Second in a maiden point to point (doesn’t stay three miles) and then showing distinct promise in his novice hurdle days, this is his perfect make-up.

A ready winner of a 2m5f handicap chase at Clonmel last November off 87, he then returned to the Co. Tipperary track and ran a cracker until getting rid of his young jockey at the second last. He would have been placed, not won, but has obviously been kept in training as connections feel he has another race at least in him and a mark of 104 in what looks an event with absolutely no strength in depth looks well within his compass.

Of course, any market support would make him even more interesting on what will be only his sixth chase and indeed rules start.

15:40 Kempton – The Bomber Liston

Nicky Henderson had six original entries for this valuable 2m5f handicap hurdle but has stayed onside with just two runners. Top weight Theatre Glory is interesting going up to this kind of trip for the first time, but has to give plenty of weight away to some improving and lightly raced young horses and it would take a top notch performance from her to lay this field to rest.

I am not so sure that the Skelton entry, Grey Dawning, is crying out for this kind of test and much prefer the claims of the four-year-old Ivaldi, Press Your Luck and Paddys Motorbike (the latter two closely matched on March course and distance form).

However, it is the other Henderson runner which I will row in with. Very lightly raced for a horse of his age, he was sent to Punchestown for the big three mile staying handicap hurdle at that festival following two good runs in minor contests at the beginning of the season.

He ran very well in Ireland before his stamina began to ebb away turning for home and the return to shorter off the same mark makes him look a very interesting each-way play.

Paul Jacobs’ December 26 Horse Racing Tips

13:10 Leopardstown – Risk Bell
13:35 Wetherby – Aye Right
14:30 Kempton – Eldorado Allen/Millers
15:15 Limerick – Sunnyvilla
15:40 Kempton – The Bomber Liston

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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