Paul Jacobs’ Weekend Picks
12.53 – Southwell – HERE WE HAVE IT
13.15 – Cork – HIDDENVALLEY LAKE
14.10 – Newcastle – CAPPARIS – ABANDONED
14.43 – Newcastle – LUCKYLUCKYLUCKY – ABANDONED
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
12.53 – Southwell – HERE WE HAVE IT
My first port of call when having an early look at this feature £19,000-added event was the oldest horse in the contest, Ornua. The 11-year-old is a long way from the horse that beat Snow Falcon at Tramore almost a year ago over two and three quarter miles.
After one more run, he was switched from Henry De Bromhead’s yard too Georgie Howell but he has run like a drain on his eight subsequent outings being beaten an accumulative total of 335 lengths!!!
Not surprisingly his handicap mark has tumbled from 143 all the way down to 102 and in what looks a last ditch effort, he finally gets dropped to the minimum trip for the first time in 12 months. Whether that has the desired effect or not is mere conjecture, but he is definitely the dark if rather exposed runner in the field.
The old boy may well be worth a saver if strong in the market and with the race being top heavy full of pace I thought that my seven-year-old selection could well be the play here.
He is the definitive mid-div horse in the field and there was plenty to like about his comeback run following a break of 219 days when he was a fair three length third behind Wheelbahri at Kelso last month following wind surgery.
If that has put the desired fitness edge on him, then he looks a massive player here.
13.15 – Cork – HIDDENVALLEY LAKE
Cool Survivor sets the mark for this Grade Three novice hurdle and following a clear cut maiden win over two and a half miles at Punchestown, he seemed to relish the extra yardage, albeit off a moderate pace, when stepped up to three miles to win a Listed hurdle over the course and distance last month.
A 3lbs penalty up against better youngsters here makes it slightly more difficult, but all the same I was really impressed by the winning run of the five-year-old selection in a maiden hurdle at Naas.
Rachael was at pains to have him close to the pace from the off in the 23 runner field, obviously to try and utilise his guaranteed stamina (would have won his only point to point, but for being carried out at the last fence) and apart from getting the penultimate flight slightly wrong his jumping was impeccable.
This extra yardage can only be a bonus for him and the fact that the second and fifth have cemented the form since by winning only adds further merit to his claims here from a yard finally showing signs of coming out of a slump.
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14.10 – Newcastle – CAPPARIS
This is just about the weakest handicap on the level or over the sticks this weekend, but as such there are several engaging players if you look deep enough. I have been waiting for Laconic to get a deeper test of stamina and he gets the chance to run over an extended 10 furlongs for the first time in his career.
There was a lot to like about his fourth of 10 behind Measured Moments at Wolverhampton over an extended mile earlier this month and on this stiffer track it would be no surprise if the three-year-old came good.
The son of Oasis Dream is worth keeping an eye on for the future whatever he does here, but Richard Fahey’s charge could prove a tad better choice at the weights.
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Once raced as a juvenile, ran very green, she didn’t see a racecourse again until September with some fair runs behind Cloch Nua over a mile here and last time out at Wolverhampton when she was a huge eye catcher.
Sent off at 9/1 that day she was anchored in rear off just a fair gallop and must have been the best part of 10 lengths off the lead turning for home. However, once she found her stride under Oisin Orr the daughter of Iffraaj fairly flew home to finish a never nearer three parts of a length third.
On breeding she is no certainty to get the extra quarter mile, but her run style suggests otherwise and she won’t get many easier chances to break her maiden tag at the seventh time of asking.
14:43 – Newcastle – LUCKYLUCKYLUCKY
Another class six handicap sprint that will probably scare most of you off at the back end of a mainly moderate card at the Gosforth Park track, but I thought that this three-year-old selection was verging on the bets bet of the day in the UK and Ireland.
Delali, Atrafan, Rockley Point and Dodgy Bob all like it around here, although the last named is severely on the downgrade and hasn’t won for some time.
Krakan Power continues to run okay and has outstanding claims of landing the gold medal based on his last two placed efforts here in slightly better events. However, he has ben found in the market place and at three times the price of the selection who I make a solid each-way play in an awful contest.
You can forget his last three starts as seven furlongs has more than stretched his stamina, but previous to that he ran a very solid length and a quarter third to Hurtswood at Redcar when he would have been even closer but for being locked up and short of room approaching the distance.
With Alex Jary taking 7lbs off the gelding, he is fully 10lbs lower than for that Cleveland run and 27lbs off his highest ever mark when second to Lucky Man in a class five event a year ago. Even if he retains a modicum of that talent he has to be a senior player here from a solid high draw.
Paul Jacobs’ Weekend Picks
12.53 – Southwell – HERE WE HAVE IT
13.15 – Cork – HIDDENVALLEY LAKE
14.10 – Newcastle – CAPPARIS
14.43 – Newcastle – LUCKYLUCKYLUCKY
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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