Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays across the tracks on Sunday

Paul Jacobs’ makes his picks across the tracks.

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Paul Jacobs’ value plays:

12.50 Navan – Themanintheboots
1.50 Navan – Jiving Jerry
2.20 Navan – Velvet Elvis
2.30 Carlisle – Storm Nelson

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

12.50 Navan – Themanintheboots

Galway bumper winner, Firm Footings, will need to be above average to see off this large field of mainly older horses even though there is plenty of chaff amongst the wheat here. Grangeclare West is of obvious interest following a 547 day break having won both her sole point to point and bumper in good style. The runner-up in that bumper has since won three times under rules, but the third has only landed a handicap hurdle off a modest 103 and the remainder of the top six have done absolutely nothing to advertise the form.

Still, if she is strong in the market the daughter of Presenting has to be respected, in addition to the mere fact that connections have kept her in training after such a long spell on the sidelines.

But I was really taken by the selection on a couple of his starts last season and feel that he is significantly better than he has shown so far. His best run to date came on his second start in a bumper when he was basically outpaced off a fair pace by Realistic Optimism. That winner has since run well in a bumper under a penalty and being by Milan out of a Supreme Leader mare the step up to two and a half miles can only be a plus for this four-year-old whose best days lie ahead of him.

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1.50 Navan – Jiving Jerry

A mid grade, two and three quarter mile handicap hurdle has so many different angles to it, none more so than the fact that there are a bucket load of the 23 runners that like to be at the sharp end of a race which sure ensure that this could turn into quite a slog.

Jungle Prose is on a four timer following wins off 85, 97 and 109, but a big hike to 125 here and in a much deeper race asks a much bigger question. In contrast the form figures for Peaceful Sunday, FP-UU make for desperate reading, but two of those runs saw him depart early over fences and on bits and pieces of his old hurdles form he could run well above his likely big starting price with a clear round.

The selection won off a mark of 111 at the back end of October, but has not really moved forward since that run. You could make excuses for a couple of those runs, ground too quick last time out at Naas and two miles back at Galway way too sharp. Back over his last winning trip and only 6lbs higher on proper jumping ground the son of Jeremy is no forlorn hope and I shall be having a decent each-way play on him at double figure odds.

Fakir-Doudairies-wins-novice-chase-at-Navan-2019

2.20 Navan – Velvet Elvis

Gordon Elliot has a huge battalion of eight entries in the 19 runner Bar One Racing Troytown Handicap Chase the best of which is likely to be last year’s runner-up and top weight Farclas. The eight-year-old looks sure to run well again and with Kieren Buckley taking 5lbs off his back, he is a pound lower than last year. However, this is merely the first step on the long road to Aintree in April and several others are preferred.

They include Lifetime Ambition, especially as Jessie Harrington’s rep had a lovely pipe opener when fourth of 14 to Al Dancer in the Grand Sefton at Aintree only backing out after the elbow and a Grand National shot could also be on the cards for him in five months time. For the time being this looks a reasonable target and along with Munster National winner, The Big Dog, he looks a bigger danger to the selection. The last named is 8lbs higher than for his game success at Limerick and this looks a deeper race.

My pick ran a career best when an eight length sixth in the Irish National and although a long way behind the aforementioned The Big Dog first time up, the six-year-old is always better for a first start and ran way too freely that afternoon. I anticipate a major step forward here and at a double figure price off a workable mark of 143 I fancy he is the value play for the major betting event of the day.

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2.30 Carlisle – Storm Nelson

Three miles over hurdles on soft ground at the Cumbrian track is a proper test of stamina and even in a relatively small field this could turn into a bit of a slug fest. Top weight Flight Deck takes a significant drop in grade after pulling up behind Remastered at Aintree, while there is plenty of pace on here with the likes of The Galloping Bear and Captain Zebo likely to be at the head of affairs from the off. Both of those candidates have run well at this stiffest of Northern tracks in the past and look sure to play a part again, but sandy Thomson’s charge may just offer us a wee bit of value despite this being his first start in 329 days.

Very lightly raced for a nine-year-old, only his 12th start over hurdles, he remains relatively unexposed. A winner off 96 at Ayr over two and a half miles and then twice over the course and distance off 110 and 117, he has only run twice since those victories since April 2021. However, he showed on his last start behind the prolific Wakool at Ayr in January (off 125) that he retains all of his old ability and with a fair record fresh off a 1lb lower mark he is entitled to go well in a race which should set up nicely for him.

Paul Jacobs’ value plays:

12.50 Navan – Themanintheboots
1.50 Navan – Jiving Jerry
2.20 Navan – Velvet Elvis
2.30 Carlisle – Storm Nelson

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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