*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
1.50 Goodwood – Byron Hill
This professional jump jockeys event is normally hugely competitive and this year’s renewal is no different. The other factor to bear in mind is that they normally go a solid pace and that should enable Byron Hill to drop the bit and relax here which is essential if he is to follow up his Ffos Las success last time out. That afternoon this lightly raced five-year-old got into a lovely rhythm off a solid pace under Rossa Ryan and looked the winner fully half a mile from home.
As expected, when Rossa hit the ‘go win the race’ button, the bay gelding had plenty left in the tank and bounded some two and a half lengths clear of his nine rivals, running very strongly through the line. A 5lbs penalty looks very fair in the circumstances and with plenty of pace again likely the make-up of this stayers contest there is every chance that he will once again relax in the contest. The added bonus is that all of his best form has come on decent ground, fast ground takes him out of his comfort zone, but with the odd shower forecast the selection can take care of the likes of Justus and bottom weight Suspicious.
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2.50 Southwell – Bellagio Man
This weekly column is all about finding the relative value of the day and that could still mean supporting a favourite if I feel the selection should be a shorter price still. But in this case, Anthony Brittain’s charge Bellagio Man could outrun his likely huge odds on a wide open sprint event over six furlongs on the Tapeta.
It’s simply not good enough to suggest that a horse is well enough handicapped to win a race on old form, there has to be at least some signs of a return to relative form, and that was definitely the case two outings back when this lightly raced four-year-old raced with great enthusiasm when a four lengths sixth of 14 behind So Grateful over course and distance.
As a definitive hold-up horse, he was hardly suited by the moderate pace that day and did well to get into a challenging position a furlong and a half out before that effort to get closer took it’s toll in the final 200 yard or so. Dropped a further 5lbs since that run I think he could prove to be the each-way call here at a double figure price from a good draw with a bundle of pace among his peers in this class four event.
4.35 Southwell – Tiberio Force
Decoding could well be the dark horse here if he manages to settle on his return to a mile and a half on his first start at the track. The son of Dawn Approach probably still has more to offer but like a number of my selections in this weeks column, the key to his chance could be settle early on off what should be a solid pace on paper.
One of those pace elements is Jackamundo and he has every chance of being a player if getting into a nice galloping rhythm under Harrison Shaw. However, at the current prices I think that Tiberio Force is worth another chance following a slightly disappointing display at Newcastle last time out. A 9/2 favourite that day, I think that Phil Dennis should have been more positive on his partner who had looked as though he needed every yard of the mile and a half when a never nearer third of eight at Ripon in August when never able to get competitive until running on in the dying embers of that contest.
I fully expect Lewis Edmunds to be in a prominent position throughout and maybe go for home some way out as in my eye he looks a confirmed stayer that will in time get a mile and three quarters and possibly beyond. A handicap mark of 54 in a moderate contest looks hugely playable and I shall be massively disappointed if he doesn’t play a major part in the finish of this bottom grade handicap.
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4.45 Goodwood – Tritonic
With just the eight runners in this field, this looks to have the make and shape of the best betting race on the card at the Sussex track if the all the entries stand their ground. Soto Sizzler is the class act in the mile and a half event and after landing the City and Suburban Handicap at Epsom earlier in the season off a mark of 99, he is finally being shown mercy by the assessor off 103. There is little doubt that he is a better horse on slightly quicker ground, but a switchback track is right up his street especially if Jim Crowley can boss things from the sharp end. However, he may not get an uncontested lead here and if we do get a forced fast pace then Alan King’s charge Tritonic could well be the one to go to war with.
A top class handicap hurdler last season, the five-year-old has a really good record fresh with form figures after a lay off of 4212.
The bit of ease in the ground is another plus and if Hollie Doyle can settle him nicely in rear, his turn of foot in the closing stages could prove too hot to handle for both the top weight and the smart but also temperamental Goshen. The last named is probably better than his current mark of 87 and is feared if on a going day which is far from guaranteed.
Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays:
1.50 Goodwood – Byron Hill
2.50 Southwell – Bellagio Man
4.35 Southwell – Tiberio Force
4.45 Goodwood – Tritonic
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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