*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
The Dewhurst Stakes has been won by some classy types in recent years with the likes of Frankel, Churchill and New Approach claiming the Group 1.
It’s a race that provides plenty of clues for the following season’s 2000 Guineas and a fantastic field of seven – the smallest since 2018 – are set to tackle Saturday’s 15:00 at Newmarket.
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We’ve leafed through the history books to find some key trends in a bid to pick out the winner of this year’s renewal.
You can check out the latest odds for the Dewhurst Stakes on the Paddy Power website.
Betting
The favourite has claimed eight of the last 12 renewals of the Dewhurst Stakes, with another winner coming from the top three in the betting. It’s worth keeping an eye towards the head of Paddy Power’s market.
Career
The last 12 winners of the Dewhurst Stakes raced at least three times before heading to Newmarket, which rules out Nostrum and Isaac Shelby.
Debut
The last 12 winners of the Dewhurst Stakes were beaten by no more than 5¼l on debut, which rules out Royal Scotsman.
Distance
The last 12 renewals of the Dewhurst Stakes produced 11 winners with at least one previous run over 7f and nine winners with at least one previous win over the distance, which is a further red flag against Royal Scotsman.
Form
Nine of the last 12 Dewhurst Stakes winners had previously scored in a Group contest. The Charlie Appleby-trained Naval Power falls short as his biggest successes to date have come at Listed level.
Last Run
A bit of race fitness is important as 10 of the last 12 winners of the Dewhurst Stakes had their last run within the last 34 days, which could be a cause for concern for backers of Isaac Shelby, Naval Power and Royal Scotsman.
After flopping in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes last time out, Aesop’s Fables and Marbaan will have to overcome a key trend that nine of the last 12 Dewhurst Stakes winners were first past the post in their last race. Royal Scotsman also failed to win his most recent race.
Verdict
Chaldean marginally edges out Nostrum on trends and will look to complete a four-timer for Andrew Balding. The Frankel colt scored his most impressive victory to date last time out when making all in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in mid-September.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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