Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winners trends to note for Sunday’s Longchamp cracker

A leaf through the Arc history books...

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

A full field of 20 runners will tackle Europe’s richest race on Sunday – but do the history books offer any insight into who will come out on top?

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Luxembourg heads Paddy Power’s betting for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 15:05 while the likes of last year’s hero Torquator Tasso and multiple Group 1 scorer Alpinista are among the principal threats.

We’ve had a look at some trends from the last 10 renewals of the Arc to try and pick out this year’s winner.

Age

The four-year-olds have dominated the Arc since 2012, with the age group producing six winners from the last 10 races. The Classic generation were responsible for three winners and we’ve had a solitary five-year-old claim Europe’s richest race in the time period, Waldgeist in 2019.

The history books are against Alpinista as the last time a five-year-old mare triumphed was all the way back in 1937!

Distance

All bar one of the last 10 winners of the Arc were successful at Group 1 level over 1m4f before scoring at Longchamp. A whole host of runners fall short including prominent players Luxembourg, Titleholder and Vadeni as well as Al Hakeem, Alenquer, Bubble Gift, Deep Bond, Grand Glory, Mare Australis, Mostahdaf, Sealiway and Stay Foolish.

Draw

It’s probably not the strongest trend but recent history suggests there is a bias towards runners breaking from low stall numbers. In fact, six of the last 10 winners were drawn in six or lower, while the other four winners were drawn in 12 or higher.

Torquator Tasso scored from stall 12 last year but the second and third were drawn in 3 and 2. A further dig into the past shows that 14 of the last 20 winners were drawn 6 or lower.

Fitness

An interesting quirk of the last 10 renewals of the Arc is that all the winners – bar Enable and Treve – had run at least four times in that campaign before heading to Longchamp.

Enable and Treve both won at age three and four and had three runs in each season before their back-to-back successes. A good omen for Luxembourg?

Odds

It’s fair to say the Arc has not been a race for favourite backers in recent years. Enable was the only market leader to return to the winners’ enclosure in the last 10 renewals, with a string of big-priced winners including Torquator Tasso at 72/1 and Solemia at 33/1 in that period. Head over to the Paddy Power website to check out the latest Arc odds.

Verdict

Mendocino ticks all the boxes as a four-year-old, with a Group 1 win over 1m4f on his CV, low in the draw in stall 1 and with four runs on the board this season. He beat Torquator Tasso last time out, only suffered a narrow defeat to Alpinista last term and is a proven performer when there’s some cut in the ground. An added bonus is that Rene Piechulek, the winning jockey last year, is booked to ride.

Alpinista is a winning machine but a great draw is offset by her lack of races this season, although the Arc has been the plan all season. If you’re not too bothered about a high draw or his age then Torquator Tasso is proven over the course and distance. Mishriff, the other classy five-year-old in the race, is in the stall next to last year’s scorer.

The trends suggest Onesto and Westover could be the leading three-year-olds as Luxembourg and Vadeni are heading into the unknown in terms of trip, although the former was due to tackle 1m4f much earlier in his career but for an injury problem sustained before the Epsom Derby.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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