Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays on Sunday

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Paul Jacobs tips today:

13:49: Yarmouth – Baaraka

15:50: Ffos Las – Lexington Knight

16:15: Curragh – Benaud (each-way) & Falcon Eight

16:23: Ffos Las – Byron Hill

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13:49: Yarmouth – BAARAKA

Despite being the one to beat on current form, Lumacho is fully 12lbs higher than for winning at Chepstow at the beginning of the month and this will be her fourth run in just 15 days to boot, so she is going to have to be a hardy sort to go in again here. So I fancy that the likely favourite is well worth taking on here and, making his handicap debut, my pick is open to plenty of improvement from his opening handicap mark of 61, less the 3lbs taken off by the dependable Stefano Cherchi.

He has made mild progress since running down the field on his career debut at Windsor in July and there was plenty more to like about his third at Wolverhampton at the beginning of the month when he was beaten a shade over five lengths in a novice event, eased down once his chance had gone at the distance.

I suspect his young, but experience jockey may be asked to hold on to him for a wee bit longer here especially as there seems to be plenty enough pace in the field and being by Showcasing, this better ground should also prove right up his street.

15:50: Ffos Las – LEXINGTON KNIGHT

A nice prize up for grabs for the final of this staying event and with this Middleham Park Racing gelding I think we have a real weapon to go to war with here over the galloping mile and three quarters.

It is arguable that being by Night of Thunder out of a Cape Cross mare that he would be suited by this kind of test, but each of his last three runs at Leicester, Wolverhampton and here over a mile and a half, have suggested otherwise. The selection doesn’t do anything very quickly which is why this extra two furlongs allied to the long run from the top of the stretch should suit him. Furthermore, with his young claimer taking 7lbs off, the partnership are the stand out best treated entry in the 16-runner field. If, as I expect, he takes another step forward for the extra yardage then I will be wholly disappointed if the four-year-old is not involved at the sharp end of this contest and gets a solid vote ahead of Hidden Depths and Copperplate.

LISTEN BELOW: Ruby discussed his Sunday Curragh picks on this week’s FTHM Weekend Tipping show

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16.15: Curragh – BENAUD (each-way) & FALCON EIGHT

With so much prize money up for grabs it is no surprise that this year’s Irish Cesarewitch has plenty of strength in depth among the 30 runners which makes those at the top of the market look a wee bit skinny in the betting including the progressive three-year-old favourite Waterville (even if he is ahead of the assessor), Echoes In Rain and Earl of Tyrone (no certainty to see out this trip if as expected we get an end to end gallop).

Furthermore on what is likely to be ‘dead’ ground, the emphasis on stamina is likely to be even more magnified.

At the beginning of the year, the selection was billed as a possible Cup horse, but so many factors seem to have conspired against him this year He promised plenty in the Vintage Cop Stakes on his seasonal debut behind Kyprios, didn’t handle the drying ground at the Curragh before routing Taipan and company at Bellewstown. His run in the Ebor can be safely consigned to the dust bin as he was held up off a stop start pace and could never get a shot at the leaders. The handicapper has surprisingly kept him on the same York mark of 102, when he really should have been dropped him, but he remains unexposed over this trip and is the each-way call.

There are of course plenty of dangers with former Swedish filly Lot of Joy at the top of that tree alongside the likes of Merroir (crying out for a test of stamina) and Falcon Eight. The latter was an eye catching sixth last time out in the first time blinkers and has now fallen to his lowest ever handicap mark and is very much worth a saver at a double figure price.

16:23: Ffos Las – BYRON HILL 

I was at Catterick just over two weeks ago when I saw the selection return from a two month break to run in a similar race and it was clear in the paddock that day that the race would do him good, fitness wise, and that he was given an over confident ride at the back of the pack off what was a pretty sedate pace by his inexperienced partner.

With Rossa Ryan on board I expect an awful lot more this time around on this better surface and off a 4lbs lower mark than for his last success. That success, over a year ago, came in a significantly better race (class 3 at Nottingham) and this is by far his easiest task since then. Connections will be hoping that the weather forecast is correct and the West Wales track gets no more rain as his best form has been on a sound surface, which makes his Catterick run on soft even more commendable, and I am confident he can defy top weight here.

Paul Jacobs horse racing tips today:

13:49: Yarmouth – Baaraka
15:50: Ffos Las – Lexington Knight
16:15: Curragh – Benaud (each-way) & Falcon Eight
16:23: Ffos Las – Byron Hill

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