Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays on Sunday

The top tipster has four he hopes can score across the tracks including Simple Star (4pm) Hamilton.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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13:50 Plumpton – Lusaka

If Mordred could learn to jump then he would probably be the most likely winner of this opening maiden contest, but despite the attentions of his wily old trainer, Milton Harris, he simply hasn’t looked a natural on his six starts over timber and for that reason is passed over here.

Indigo Lake was best of these on the level, rated as high as 93 at one time, but he is so inconsistent and has been very lightly raced for a horse of his age suggesting that he has had his training problems. The positive with him is that he comes here with few miles on the clock and I doubt if Richard Newland would have persisted at the winter game unless he thought he could get at least one win out of him for his syndicate owners.

However, both may have to bow to LUSAKA who has at least shown some definite aptitude for the game since coming over from Ireland. The pick of his runs over hurdles came last time out when he was just caught on the short, but sharp uphill run in at Fontwell Park by Milldean Felix and this sharper test of speed could prove much more up his street.

15:10 Listowel – Aprils Joy

When I first looked at this mares handicap hurdle over two and a half miles, I thought that top weight Robyndeglory would be able to defy a penalty picked up for a strong running success over further at Wexford last time out particularly as there is little in the way of solid, comparable form in this field. I fancy that the seven-year-old will be sent to the front early doors to make the most of her guaranteed stamina and try and gallop this lot into the ground.

But when I looked at the make-up of the race again, I found that there were at least two other runners that like to get involved early on and that a break neck race could well set this up APRILS JOY.

Gavin Cromwell’s charge has run well at both Downpatrick and Bellewstown on her last two outings and to be fair you could easily upgrade that last run as she didn’t really get the pace in the race that she needed that afternoon when keeping on nicely behind Lieutenant Highway and Guiri. It should be a totally different case this afternoon though and the Ask mare gets yet another chance to shine off the same handicap rating of 106.

Master-Dino-Plumpton-Jan-19

15:20 Plumpton – Thibault

This looks a fascinating feature race of the day and you could easily make solid claims for five of the seven runners set to line up.

Bottom weight, Sergeant, always looked the most likely winner of his last event at Stratford, travelling very strongly and then finding more than enough off the bridle to record a clear cut success. His small penalty seems more than fair and I make him the biggest danger to the selection.

But the pick is THIBAULT, a winner of three of his last four starts over timber, culminating in seven length win over two and a half miles at the East Sussex track, this lightly raced nine-year-old has really got the bit between his teeth and with Ben Ffrench Davis taking 7lbs off his back he is actually a pound lower in the ratings today.

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16:00 Hamilton – Simple Star (Each Way)

Clan Jack has every right to be at the head of the betting tree for this class six, extended mile and a half handicap after his last seven starts have yielded three wins off 53, 55 and 58, two seconds and a third. A mark of 62 may well be within his range especially with the Jim Goldie team in such good form at the moment and he is feared.

However, I am going to go out on a limb here and suggest that SIMPLE STAR can reverse top-of-the–ground summer form with the likely market leader, being a full 14lbs better off for being beaten a shade over seven lengths.

The key to his chance of gaining revenge is for David Allan to get him drop the bit and relax through the early part of the race. On too many occasions he has simply pulled his way out of contention by doing too much, too soon.

A mark of just 62 looks too good to ignore and the son of Sea The Stars would appeal as an each-way play.

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Tips

13:50 Plumpton – Lusaka
15:10 Listowel – Aprils Joy
15:20 Plumpton – Thibault
16:00 Hamilton – Simple Star (Each Way)

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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