*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
You just know the winter is coming in when the Friday nights under lights cards start at Dundalk. We’re going to be running through to March now more or less every Friday at Ireland’s only all-weather venue and there’s a couple of ‘hacks’ that we can use to help us get a few winners.
Studying Form
Generally, I find that the draw, pace and recent form stacks up very well. The draw isn’t just about the number of the stall though. It also has to do with how the others around them may shape the race.
Previous form in barrier trials is well worth noting as is the draw over 6f and 1m 2f, more so than the 7f and 1m starts.
Jockeyship as well is important. When you have the likes of Colin Keane and Billy Lee on your side you’ve always got a chance. They’re always aware of who is around them, so more times than not, they don’t end up following the wrong horse that’ll falter and stop them getting a clear run later on.
The starts are nearly more important than the finish now since they introduced the ‘slip rail’ at Dundalk. If you’re away slowly, you’ll be playing catch up early on and burning unnecessary energy. You’d rather have that conserved for the final push to the line.
Trainers to follow
I always look at Joseph O’Brien’s runners as he targets Dundalk. His maidens can be a little bit of value – particularly if Ballydoyle have runners in the same race as they tend to head the market. John McConnell’s runners in handicaps are also worth watching, he’s very good at targeting his horses at certain races and has been doing the same in the UK too. Henry de Bromhead is another who doesn’t have many runners at Dundalk but when he does, they’re worth a second look.
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Anyway, time to put the theory in practice for Dundalk’s opening night of the winter season.
16:55 – Congo River
I’m going to keep it very simple with CONGO RIVER in the opener on Friday. who is 18lbs with likely market rival Dontspoilasale. He was just caught out at Navan last time but being by Mendelssohn should improve for the switch to this surface and looks the likely winner to me of the opening 5f sprint.
17:25 – Thunderbear
A two-year-old maiden over 6f this time and THUNDERBEAR is the top rated on 83 for those who have raced. Colin Keane rides. However, Arinniti is drawn close to him in stall 14 and has been placed twice already, the most recent of those runs for his new trainer, Paddy Twomey. He can get his head in front this time.
18:00 – Miss Abby Jools
A 47-65 three-year-old handicap and there will be a lot in this grade at Dundalk over the winter. The one I’m really drawn to Miss Abby Jools for Mick Halford. She’s had four runs during the summer in a similar grade and could be a little bit of value each-way over this one-mile trip. I’m looking forward to seeing her run.
18:30 – Scipio’s Defense
The second division of the race sees Cedar Rapids carrying top weight. Multiple Dundalk winner Stop on Red hasn’t been running as well on the turf during the Summer but as a consequence has dropped down the handicap and the booking of jockey Declan McDonagh is eye-catching.
Another who makes even more appeal is Johnny Murtagh’s SCIPIO’S DEFENSE under Ben Coen. His back form in maidens is decent and was dropped 5lb for his handicap debut at Killarney on ground that wouldn’t have suited him and now races off a mark of 63. His maiden form gives him a huge chance and he’ll be hard to beat. Stop on Red could be one for the places.
19:00 – Soyounique
The long sprint distance of 7f is up next and Bringsty was a winner at Laytown last week but isn’t really one I’d trust, especially if he gets crowded arounds Dundalk’s tight bends. Ted Walsh’s Ferrybank lost a lot of lengths out of the gates at the Curragh last time but has good form at Dundalk and is one to watch over the winter, now 11lbs lower than his last win. Dandyville should go well and I’m hoping he’ll give my selection, SOYOUNIQUE, a good lead into the straight.
He was a four-time winner in the UK and Colin Keane takes the ride now for trainer Ciaran Murphy and rates my best bet of the night.
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19:30 – Effernock Fizz
The apprentice race over 1m 4f is tricky, where Very Excellent has a great course record but could be stretched over this 1m4 trip. One to watch when back to 1m 2f. I’ve landed hit on EFFERNOCK FIZZ who takes a drop in class and will be ridden by Cian McRedmond, who gets ever closer to riding out his claim.
20:00 – Guliver’s Travels
The penultimate race on the card is another over 1m 4f and the switch to the all-weather surface should play into GULIVER’S TRAVELS hands.
20:30 – Cleopatra’s Needle
We end with a 1m 2f contest in the 47-65 bracket and Baby Bubbles was just denied here over 1m4f last term and Colin Keane takes the ride. However, she looked like she needed the trip that day so a drop back to 10f might not be ideal. The one that catches my eye is CLEOPATRA’S NEEDLE who was sixth at Roscommon on her last start, when just fading in the closing stage. Billy lee takes the ride again and she can get her head in for the first time since joining Harry Rogers.
Fran’s Friday Dundalk Tips:
16:55 – Congo River
17:25 – Thunderbear
18:00 – Miss Abby Jools
18:30 – Scipio’s Defense
19:00 – Soyounique
19:30 – Effernock Fizz
20:00 – Guliver’s Travels
20:30 – Cleopatra’s Needle
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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