St Leger winners trends as New London heads the betting for Doncaster 3.30 on Saturday

Is history against the red-hot fav?

Comments

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

The final Classic of the season in the UK is one of the biggest prizes up for grabs on this bumper weekend of racing.

New London heads Paddy Power’s odds for the St Leger as nine horses prepare to go to post in Saturday’s 15:30 at Doncaster.

NEW TO PADDY POWER NEWS?

The likes of Hurricane Lane and Kew Gardens have won the big race in recent years, and we’re set to find out which horse will add their name to the illustrious roll call of winners.

We’ve gone hunting for clues in the St Leger history books to try and pick out the most likely scorer…

Form

A decent starting point is proof that a horse has the staying power to win the St Leger, which clocks in at a distance of 1m6½f. The last 12 winners of the race had all previously placed over a distance of 1m4f or further so we can immediately rule out Lizzie Jean.

Last Time Out

The last 12 winners of the St Leger were all beaten by no more than 4½l last time out. It’s a mark against the fancied Eldar Eldarov – 5¼l back in fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris – and French Claim – 9l back in third in the Irish Derby.

Ratings

You need a quality horse to win the St Leger and recent history proves this as nine of the last 12 winners were rated in excess of 110. Hoo Ya Mal (116) and New London (115) are the only runners that meet the threshold.

Odds

The last 12 runnings of the St Leger have seen five favourites justify their position at the head of the betting. Furthermore, nine of the last 12 winners boasted single-digit starting prices so it seems worthwhile to look towards the top of Paddy Power’s market. New London, Eldar Eldarov, Hoo Ya Mal and Haskoy are currently the shortest-priced runners.

Jockey

William Buick (New London) has a terrific record in the race with three victories and another place in eight rides. The most successful jockey in the St Leger this century, however, is Frankie Dettori (Haskoy), who has four wins from 15 rides to his name plus a further two in the 1990s.

Verdict

It doesn’t look like the greatest St Leger on paper, with only two of the runners boasting ratings of 110 or higher.

New London is the red-hot favourite after landing the Gordon Stakes last time out and that form was given a boost by the runner-up, Deauville Legend, subsequently winning the Great Voltigeur. The Godolphin colt ticks all the boxes and is fancied to follow in the hooves of stablemate Hurricane Lane by winning the final Classic of the campaign.

If you feel the market leader’s price is too short then the trends suggest Hoo Ya Mal could be an each-way option, although the Epsom Derby second has to find 2l with New London from the Gordon Stakes. Haskoy, supplemented by owners Juddmonte, is an interesting alternative but the filly lacks experience with just two career runs to date.

Read More

The latest racing odds are on PaddyPower.com now

The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know

What do you think?